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【专题】投资规制政策的缺陷与不良效应

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年05月21日 09:22:57
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腾讯分分彩微信群平台直属招商最高㊖100返9♔诚招代理【微信QQ同步】860925559 腾讯分分彩,腾讯5分彩,腾讯10分彩,时时彩龙虎和,U米彩票代理,U米官网,U米平台注册,U米乐官网,U米娱乐官方网站。【专题】投资规制政策的缺陷与不良效应

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(原)(标)(题)(:【专)(题)(】投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(的)(缺)(陷)(与)(不)(良)(效)(应)(——基)(于)(中)(国)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(的)(考)(察)(
TheLimitationsandDefectiveResultsofthePolicyofRegulatingInvestment
——BasedonResearchintoChineseIronSteelIndustry
(JiangFei-taoHuangJian-baiChenWei-gang
JiaoGuo-hua)
(BusinessSchoolofCentralSouthUniversity,ChangSha,410083)
Abstract:ThispapersystemicallyresearchesintotheChineseregulationpolicyofsteelindustryinvestmentfrom1994,whichissupposedtopreventthe“overcapacity”.Thetheoreticanalysisindicatesthatthepolicyhasthreemajorlimitations:firstly,thepolicycannotfundamentallypreventthe“overcapacity”;secondly,policy-makerisunabletomakeanaccuratepredictionaboutmarketandawiseinvestmentplan;thirdly,thepolicymaydisturbthemarketprocess,leadingtothedefectivepolicyresults.Reviewsonthepredictionofthepolicymaintain:Thereisalwaysrelativelybigdeviationbetweentheforecastandplanofthefixedassetinvestmentregulationpolicyofsteelindustryandreality.TheanalysisofthepolicyinfluenceupontheinvestmentbyHodrickandPrescottfilterreveals:thepolicyobstructstheprocessofinvestmentself-adjustmentofmarket,leadingtothedefectivepolicyresults.Adoptingthiskindofpolicyneedstobeveryprudent.
Keywords:overcapacity,investmentregulation,marketprocess,theacceptabilityofpolicy,HodrickandPrescottfilter
江)(飞)(涛)(,陈)(伟)(刚)(,黄)(健)(柏)(,焦)(国)(华)(
(中)(南)(大)(学)(商)(学)(院)(,长)(沙)(,410083)
发)(表)(于)(《中)(国)(工)(业)(经)(济)(》2007年)(第)(6期)(
[摘)(要)(]本)(文)(系)(统)(研)(究)(1994年)(以)(来)(旨)(在)(防)(治)(“产)(能)(过)(剩)(”的)(中)(国)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(。理)(论)(探)(讨)(表)(明)(此)(政)(策)(存)(在)(三)(个)(缺)(陷)(:一)(是)(不)(能)(从)(根)(本)(上)(治)(理)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(;二)(是)(相)(关)(部)(门)(不)(可)(能)(进)(行)(准)(确)(预)(测)(和)(制)(定)(合)(意)(的)(投)(资)(规)(划)(;三)(是)(这)(一)(政)(策)(会)(干)(扰)(市)(场)(过)(程)(,并)(导)(致)(不)(良)(后)(果)(。对)(历)(次)(预)(测)(的)(考)(察)(表)(明)(:钢)(铁)(工)(业)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(的)(预)(测)(与)(规)(划)(一)(直)(与)(市)(场)(实)(际)(运)(行)(存)(在)(很)(大)(偏)(差)(。钢)(铁)(工)(业)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(对)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(影)(响)(的)(HP滤)(波)(分)(析)(进)(一)(步)(揭)(示)(:此)(政)(策)(阻)(碍)(了)(市)(场)(对)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(的)(自)(发)(调)(整)(,造)(成)(一)(些)(不)(良)(政)(策)(后)(果)(。采)(取)(此)(类)(政)(策)(应)(审)(慎)(。
[关)(键)(词)(]钢)(铁)(产)(业)(;产)(能)(过)(剩)(;投)(资)(规)(制)(;市)(场)(过)(程)(;政)(策)(合)(意)(性)(;HP滤)(波)(
[中)(图)(分)(类)(号)(]F203[文)(献)(标)(识)(码)(]A[文)(章)(编)(号)(]
一)(、引)(言)(
从)(1994年)(至)(2002年)(期)(间)(,相)(关)(部)(门)(为)(预)(防)(和)(治)(理)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(的)(“重)(复)(建)(设)(”问)(题)(,一)(直)(对)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(的)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(进)(行)(严)(格)(的)(行)(政)(规)(制)(。2003年)(,钢)(材)(需)(求)(强)(劲)(,供)(需)(矛)(盾)(越)(来)(越)(突)(出)(,相)(关)(部)(门)(放)(松)(了)(对)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(的)(规)(制)(,钢)(铁)(工)(业)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(在)(这)(一)(年)(出)(现)(了)(爆)(发)(性)(的)(增)(长)(,增)(长)(率)(高)(达)(88.71%,引)(起)(各)(方)(的)(高)(度)(关)(注)(。2003年)(底)(相)(关)(部)(门)(认)(为)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(存)(在)(盲)(目)(投)(资)(、重)(复)(建)(设)(问)(题)(,认)(为)(“在)(建)(项)(目)(生)(产)(能)(力)(大)(大)(超)(过)(了)(市)(场)(预)(期)(,必)(将)(导)(致)(生)(产)(能)(力)(过)(剩)(”,并)(制)(订)(相)(应)(政)(策)(对)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(进)(行)(严)(格)(规)(制)(以)(防)(止)(未)(来)(出)(现)(严)(重)(的)(“产)(能)(过)(剩)(”。2005年)(底)(,相)(关)(部)(门)(认)(为)(我)(国)(钢)(铁)(产)(业)(“产)(能)(过)(剩)(问)(题)(突)(出)(”,2006年)(3月)(国)(务)(院)(颁)(布)(《国)(务)(院)(关)(于)(加)(快)(推)(进)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(行)(业)(结)(构)(调)(整)(通)(知)(》,6月)(国)(务)(院)(颁)(布)(《国)(务)(院)(办)(公)(厅)(转)(发)(发)(展)(改)(革)(委)(等)(部)(门)(关)(于)(加)(强)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(调)(控)(从)(严)(控)(制)(新)(开)(工)(项)(目)(意)(见)(的)(通)(知)(》,进)(一)(步)(强)(化)(对)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(的)(规)(制)(,以)(治)(理)(突)(出)(的)(“产)(能)(过)(剩)(”。
严)(格)(的)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(,可)(以)(迅)(速)(制)(止)(转)(轨)(体)(制)(扭)(曲)(下)(钢)(铁)(企)(业)(产)(能)(投)(资)(的)(过)(度)(膨)(胀)(,为)(维)(护)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(稳)(定)(和)(产)(业)(健)(康)(发)(展)(起)(到)(重)(要)(作)(用)(。但)(是)(,也)(必)(须)(看)(到)(这)(种)(政)(策)(本)(身)(存)(在)(缺)(陷)(,并)(可)(能)(会)(导)(致)(一)(些)(不)(良)(的)(政)(策)(效)(应)(。1994年)(以)(来)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(运)(行)(情)(况)(变)(化)(大)(致)(可)(以)(反)(映)(出)(一)(些)(问)(题)(:除)(2003年)(1月)(至)(11月)(期)(间)(,相)(关)(部)(门)(一)(直)(对)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(进)(行)(严)(格)(控)(制)(,但)(在)(2003年)(末)(相)(关)(部)(门)(即)(认)(为)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(产)(能)(投)(资)(过)(度)(,这)(种)(严)(格)(的)(投)(资)(控)(制)(似)(乎)(并)(不)(能)(很)(好)(地)(从)(根)(本)(上)(防)(治)(“重)(复)(建)(设)(”或)(“产)(能)(过)(剩)(”问)(题)(,反)(而)(使)(得)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(在)(“不)(足)(”和)(“过)(度)(”之)(间)(剧)(烈)(波)(动)(,形)(成)(“一)(卡)(就)(死)(,一)(放)(就)(乱)(”循)(环)(。
目)(前)(中)(国)(还)(在)(多)(个)(“产)(能)(过)(剩)(”和)(多)(个)(可)(能)(出)(现)(“产)(能)(过)(剩)(”行)(业)(实)(行)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(,投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(也)(一)(直)(是)(作)(为)(中)(国)(治)(理)(所)(谓)(“重)(复)(建)(设)(”、“过)(度)(竞)(争)(”的)(主)(要)(措)(施)(,因)(而)(对)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(缺)(陷)(及)(其)(不)(良)(影)(响)(的)(系)(统)(性)(研)(究)(具)(有)(重)(要)(的)(借)(鉴)(价)(值)(和)(实)(际)(意)(义)(。本)(文)(框)(架)(结)(构)(如)(下)(:本)(文)(第)(一)(部)(分)(是)(引)(言)(;本)(文)(第)(二)(部)(分)(通)(过)(理)(论)(探)(讨)(揭)(示)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(存)(在)(的)(主)(要)(缺)(陷)(;本)(文)(的)(第)(三)(部)(分)(将)(揭)(示)(钢)(铁)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(相)(关)(部)(门)(持)(续)(显)(著)(的)(预)(测)(偏)(差)(问)(题)(;本)(文)(的)(第)(四)(部)(分)(借)(助)(HP滤)(波)(的)(方)(法)(,来)(揭)(示)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(如)(何)(影)(响)(市)(场)(的)(自)(发)(调)(整)(过)(程)(,造)(成)(不)(良)(的)(政)(策)(结)(果)(;本)(文)(的)(第)(五)(部)(分)(是)(全)(文)(的)(结)(论)(。
二)(、中)(国)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(缺)(陷)(的)(理)(论)(探)(讨)(
中)(国)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(一)(直)(采)(取)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(防)(治)(“产)(能)(过)(剩)(”或)(“重)(复)(建)(设)(”,在)(政)(策)(制)(定)(上)(也)(一)(直)(遵)(循)(着)(“预)(测)(、计)(划)(、制)(定)(具)(体)(实)(施)(措)(施)(”的)(固)(有)(模)(式)(,并)(以)(对)(投)(资)(规)(模)(、投)(资)(流)(向)(和)(投)(资)(步)(调)(的)(管)(制)(和)(调)(控)(作)(为)(主)(要)(手)(段)(,这)(实)(际)(上)(是)(以)(政)(府)(部)(门)(判)(断)(和)(预)(测)(替)(代)(价)(格)(信)(号)(、以)(政)(府)(计)(划)(、规)(制)(来)(代)(替)(市)(场)(调)(节)(机)(制)(。从)(理)(论)(上)(看)(,这)(种)(投)(资)(控)(制)(政)(策)(存)(在)(三)(个)(主)(要)(的)(缺)(陷)(:其)(一)(,投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(不)(能)(去)(除)(现)(有)(体)(制)(中)(扭)(曲)(企)(业)(投)(资)(行)(为)(的)(制)(度)(性)(因)(素)(,也)(就)(不)(能)(消)(除)(企)(业)(过)(度)(产)(能)(投)(资)(的)(强)(烈)(动)(机)(,难)(以)(从)(根)(本)(上)(治)(理)(“产)(能)(过)(剩)(”或)(“重)(复)(建)(设)(”。其)(二)(,投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(是)(以)(对)(市)(场)(的)(预)(测)(作)(为)(制)(定)(的)(主)(要)(依)(据)(,但)(是)(相)(关)(部)(门)(在)(是)(否)(有)(能)(力)(进)(行)(准)(确)(的)(市)(场)(预)(测)(这)(一)(点)(上)(是)(有)(待)(商)(榷)(的)(。以)(错)(误)(预)(测)(为)(基)(础)(制)(定)(的)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(会)(不)(可)(避)(免)(地)(带)(来)(一)(些)(不)(良)(效)(应)(。其)(三)(,投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(会)(直)(接)(干)(扰)(市)(场)(竞)(争)(过)(程)(,影)(响)(市)(场)(对)(企)(业)(投)(资)(的)(自)(发)(调)(整)(过)(程)(,并)(有)(可)(能)(扭)(曲)(企)(业)(的)(投)(资)(行)(为)(,从)(而)(导)(致)(意)(想)(不)(到)(的)(不)(良)(影)(响)(。
1、投)(资)(控)(制)(政)(策)(不)(能)(从)(根)(本)(上)(治)(理)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(
中)(国)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(投)(资)(控)(制)(政)(策)(以)(政)(府)(规)(制)(治)(理)(“产)(能)(过)(剩)(”或)(是)(“重)(复)(建)(设)(”,其)(基)(本)(逻)(辑)(是)(认)(为)(“产)(能)(过)(剩)(”或)(“重)(复)(建)(设)(”是)(市)(场)(失)(灵)(,必)(须)(通)(过)(政)(府)(的)(干)(预)(才)(能)(解)(决)(。国)(内)(为)(这)(种)(观)(点)(提)(供)(理)(论)(依)(据)(的)(代)(表)(性)(人)(物)(是)(曹)(建)(海)(、杨)(蕙)(馨)(、张)(军)(和)(罗)(云)(辉)(。曹)(建)(海)((2000)、杨)(蕙)(馨)((2000)等)(认)(为)(由)(于)(某)(些)(产)(业)(自)(身)(的)(特)(征)(——进)(入)(壁)(垒)(低)(和)(退)(出)(壁)(垒)(高)(,导)(致)(了)(这)(些)(产)(业)(系)(统)(性)(的)(过)(度)(进)(入)(进)(而)(导)(致)(“产)(能)(过)(剩)(”。曹)(建)(海)((2000)以)(“过)(度)(进)(入)(定)(理)(”从)(理)(论)(上)(来)(证)(明)(市)(场)(经)(济)(中)(“过)(度)(竞)(争)(”的)(存)(在)(性)(,张)(军)((1998)以)(过)(度)(进)(入)(定)(理)(中)(一)(种)(特)(殊)(情)(形)(的)(变)(形)(来)(说)(明)(,市)(场)(经)(济)(中)(存)(在)(的)(过)(度)(进)(入)(是)(重)(复)(建)(设)(形)(成)(的)(原)(因)(。罗)(云)(辉)((2004)以)(植)(草)(益)((2000)建)(立)(的)(同)(质)(产)(品)(市)(场)(寡)(头)(重)(复)(博)(弈)(模)(型)(说)(明)(保)(有)(过)(剩)(生)(产)(能)(力)(有)(利)(于)(寡)(头)(合)(谋)(,来)(说)(明)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(。
这)(些)(研)(究)(为)(认)(识)(“重)(复)(建)(设)(”或)(“产)(能)(过)(剩)(”提)(供)(了)(有)(益)(的)(思)(考)(,但)(在)(理)(论)(上)(也)(存)(在)(一)(些)(问)(题)(需)(进)(一)(步)(探)(讨)(。曹)(建)(海)((2000)、杨)(蕙)(馨)((1999)的)(分)(析)(是)(值)(得)(商)(榷)(的)(,因)(为)(退)(出)(壁)(垒)(实)(际)(上)(就)(是)(一)(种)(进)(入)(壁)(垒)((Gilbert,1989;Caves,1998),首)(先)(退)(出)(障)(碍)(是)(企)(业)(进)(入)(时)(必)(须)(考)(虑)(的)(一)(种)(风)(险)(成)(本)(,退)(出)(壁)(垒)(越)(高)(企)(业)(进)(入)(时)(的)(风)(险)(成)(本)(越)(高)(,其)(次)(退)(出)(障)(碍)(可)(以)(成)(为)(在)(位)(企)(业)(阻)(止)(进)(入)(的)(重)(要)(工)(具)(,退)(出)(壁)(垒)(高)(不)(但)(不)(能)(解)(释)(产)(业)(的)(过)(度)(进)(入)(与)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(,反)(而)(只)(能)(解)(释)(进)(入)(不)(足)(与)(产)(能)(不)(足)((李)(伟)(,2005)。罗)(云)(辉)(和)(植)(草)(宜)(的)(模)(型)(里)(都)(没)(有)(考)(虑)(事)(前)(产)(能)(的)(投)(资)(成)(本)(,也)(忽)(略)(了)(保)(持)(有)(限)(的)(产)(能)(也)(是)(保)(持)(默)(契)(合)(谋)(的)(重)(要)(方)(。以)(过)(度)(进)(入)(定)(理)(来)(解)(释)(“重)(复)(建)(设)(”或)(“过)(度)(竞)(争)(”,在)(理)(论)(上)(也)(存)(在)(较)(大)(的)(缺)(陷)(。Mankiw和)(Whinston(1986)自)(己)(就)(曾)(指)(出)(,生)(产)(厂)(商)(作)(为)(价)(格)(接)(受)(者)(或)(采)(取)(价)(格)(竞)(争)(的)(行)(为)(方)(式)(时)(过)(度)(进)(入)(定)(理)(并)(不)(成)(立)(。无)(论)(中)(国)(和)(日)(本)(关)(于)(过)(度)(竞)(争)(的)(描)(述)(,都)(把)(激)(烈)(的)(价)(格)(竞)(争)(作)(为)(其)(显)(著)(特)(征)(,也)(就)(是)(说)(过)(度)(竞)(争)(行)(业)(中)(的)(企)(业)(是)(采)(用)(价)(格)(竞)(争)(的)(行)(为)(方)(式)(,当)(企)(业)(采)(用)(这)(种)(行)(为)(方)(式)(时)(,过)(度)(进)(入)(定)(理)(是)(不)(成)(立)(的)(,因)(而)(很)(难)(以)(过)(度)(进)(入)(定)(理)(解)(释)(我)(国)(过)(度)(竞)(争)(或)(重)(复)(建)(设)(的)(形)(成)(机)(制)(。Nachbar、Petersen和)(Hwang(1998)研)(究)(还)(表)(明)(,当)(存)(在)(沉)(没)(成)(本)(时)(,哪)(怕)(沉)(没)(成)(本)(只)(占)(整)(个)(固)(定)(成)(本)(很)(小)(的)(比)(例)(,过)(度)(进)(入)(定)(理)(也)(不)(成)(立)(。
越)(来)(越)(多)(的)(研)(究)(表)(明)(,“重)(复)(建)(设)(”或)(“产)(能)(过)(剩)(”是)(地)(方)(政)(府)(对)(微)(观)(经)(济)(的)(干)(预)(所)(造)(成)(的)(,是)(一)(种)(典)(型)(的)(“政)(府)(失)(灵)(”。魏)(后)(凯)((2001)认)(为)(以)(国)(家)(为)(主)(导)(的)(投)(资)(体)(制)(、地)(方)(保)(护)(主)(义)(以)(及)(预)(算)(软)(约)(束)(是)(不)(合)(理)(重)(复)(建)(设)(形)(成)(的)(主)(要)(原)(因)(。周)(黎)(安)((2004)的)(研)(究)(表)(明)(:现)(有)(的)(官)(员)(晋)(升)(激)(励)(体)(制)(使)(得)(地)(方)(政)(府)(官)(员)(往)(往)(以)(远)(远)(低)(于)(成)(本)(价)(的)(土)(地)(、各)(税)(收)(优)(惠)(措)(施)(来)(招)(商)(引)(资)(,从)(而)(造)(成)(重)(复)(建)(设)(。北)(京)(大)(学)(中)(国)(经)(济)(研)(究)(中)(心)(宏)(观)(组)((2004)的)(研)(究)(表)(明)(:在)(土)(地)(产)(权)(模)(糊)(不)(清)(和)(银)(行)(产)(权)(约)(束)(软)(化)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,地)(方)(政)(府)(、企)(业)(与)(银)(行)(三)(方)(共)(谋)(土)(地)(和)(贷)(款)(这)(两)(种)(最)(为)(关)(键)(的)(生)(产)(要)(素)(,地)(方)(政)(府)(给)(予)(投)(资)(者)(的)(各)(种)(优)(惠)(政)(策)(尤)(其)(是)(土)(地)(优)(惠)(政)(策)(,大)(大)(降)(低)(投)(资)(者)(的)(投)(资)(成)(本)(,使)(得)(投)(资)(者)(的)(私)(人)(投)(资)(成)(本)(远)(远)(小)(于)(社)(会)(投)(资)(成)(本)(,从)(而)(引)(发)(过)(度)(的)(产)(能)(投)(资)(。钢)(铁)(工)(业)(由)(于)(投)(资)(规)(模)(大)(、GDP产)(值)(高)(、对)(地)(方)(就)(业)(与)(税)(收)(贡)(献)(大)(,在)(本)(轮)(经)(济)(景)(气)(中)(成)(为)(许)(多)(地)(方)(政)(府)(争)(相)(提)(供)(各)(种)(优)(惠)(政)(策)(引)(资)(的)(重)(点)(行)(业)(,这)(些)(投)(资)(优)(惠)(措)(施)(使)(钢)(铁)(企)(业)(具)(有)(很)(强)(的)(过)(度)(产)(能)(投)(资)(的)(倾)(向)(。徐)(寿)(松)((2005)、李)(军)(杰)(和)(周)(卫)(峰)((2005)对)(于)(“铁)(本)(事)(件)(”这)(一)(典)(型)(案)(例)(进)(行)(深)(入)(剖)(析)(,在)(很)(大)(程)(度)(上)(印)(证)(了)(这)(一)(点)(。
从)(以)(上)(对)(“产)(能)(过)(剩)(”形)(成)(的)(相)(关)(研)(究)(来)(看)(,不)(但)(“产)(能)(过)(剩)(”不)(是)(由)(“市)(场)(失)(灵)(”引)(起)(的)(,不)(需)(要)(通)(过)(政)(府)(规)(制)(来)(解)(决)(;反)(而)(正)(是)(地)(方)(政)(府)(对)(微)(观)(经)(济)(的)(不)(当)(干)(预)(造)(成)(了)(“产)(能)(过)(剩)(”或)(“重)(复)(建)(设)(”,是)(地)(方)(政)(府)(对)(投)(资)(者)(的)(各)(种)(优)(惠)(措)(施)(使)(得)(投)(资)(者)(的)(私)(人)(成)(本)(远)(远)(低)(于)(社)(会)(成)(本)(,从)(而)(导)(致)(了)(“重)(复)(建)(设)(”或)(“产)(能)(过)(剩)(”。因)(而)(,我)(国)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(不)(能)(消)(除)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(产)(生)(的)(根)(源)(,只)(有)(在)(政)(策)(得)(到)(严)(格)(执)(行)(时)(能)(暂)(时)(抑)(制)(企)(业)(过)(度)(产)(能)(投)(资)(冲)(动)(,政)(策)(一)(旦)(放)(松)(产)(能)(投)(资)(会)(立)(即)(反)(弹)(,反)(而)(造)(成)(投)(资)(在)(“不)(足)(”与)(“过)(度)(”之)(间)(剧)(烈)(波)(动)(。
2、信)(息)(问)(题)(与)(准)(确)(市)(场)(预)(测)(的)(不)(可)(能)(性)(
从)(制)(定)(实)(施)(模)(式)(来)(看)(,中)(国)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(具)(有)(很)(强)(的)(计)(划)(经)(济)(色)(彩)(:政)(策)(制)(定)(者)(对)(市)(场)(需)(求)(规)(模)(、产)(品)(需)(求)(结)(构)(及)(其)(变)(化)(进)(行)(判)(断)(和)(预)(测)(,并)(根)(据)(预)(测)(制)(定)(相)(应)(具)(体)(的)(整)(体)(投)(资)(计)(划)(和)(实)(施)(措)(施)(,对)(投)(资)(规)(模)(、投)(资)(流)(向)(和)(投)(资)(步)(调)(进)(行)(管)(制)(和)(调)(控)(。从)(本)(质)(上)(而)(言)(中)(国)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(是)(对)(市)(场)(供)(给)(的)(计)(划)(管)(理)(,不)(过)(在)(手)(段)(上)(已)(经)(从)(计)(划)(经)(济)(时)(的)(直)(接)(行)(政)(指)(令)(转)(变)(为)(行)(政)(规)(制)(。钢)(铁)(工)(业)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(计)(划)(的)(合)(理)(性)(与)(政)(策)(的)(合)(意)(性)(在)(很)(大)(程)(度)(上)(处)(决)(于)(市)(场)(预)(测)(的)(准)(确)(性)(,而)(相)(关)(政)(策)(制)(定)(部)(门)(在)(这)(一)(点)(上)(恰)(恰)(是)(令)(人)(质)(疑)(的)(,江)(小)(涓)((1999)、刘)(纪)(鹏)((2004)、杨)(正)(位)((2006)的)(研)(究)(就)(表)(明)(,相)(关)(政)(策)(部)(门)(对)(家)(电)(、电)(力)(、纺)(织)(、汽)(车)(等)(行)(业)(种)(种)(预)(测)(与)(实)(际)(市)(场)(运)(行)(存)(在)(很)(大)(的)(偏)(差)(。
与)(反)(垄)(断)(规)(制)(政)(策)(制)(定)(者)(相)(比)(,中)(国)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(制)(定)(者)(需)(要)(获)(取)(数)(量)(多)(得)(多)(的)(市)(场)(细)(节)(知)(识)(,面)(临)(更)(为)(复)(杂)(和)(困)(难)(的)(信)(息)(与)(知)(识)(问)(题)(:(1)投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(制)(定)(者)(进)(行)(准)(确)(市)(场)(预)(测)(必)(须)(获)(取)(大)(量)(关)(于)(市)(场)(供)(需)(的)(细)(节)(知)(识)(,然)(而)(这)(些)(知)(识)(只)(能)(依)(靠)(市)(场)(过)(程)(的)(展)(开)(而)(逐)(渐)(显)(示)(和)(暴)(露)(出)(来)(,在)(市)(场)(过)(程)(产)(生)(这)(些)(信)(息)(之)(前)(获)(取)(它)(是)(无)(法)(实)(现)(的)((Lavoie,1985);(2)由)(于)(市)(场)(的)(细)(节)(知)(识)(,是)(主)(观)(的)(、默)(示)(的)(和)(与)(特)(定)(时)(空)(有)(关)(的)(知)(识)(,是)(无)(法)(进)(行)(汇)(总)(的)(知)(识)((哈)(耶)(克)(,2003),投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(制)(定)(部)(门)(无)(法)(利)(用)(这)(些)(知)(识)(无)(法)(进)(行)(有)(意)(义)(的)(统)(计)(并)(据)(此)(进)(行)(正)(确)(的)(经)(济)(计)(算)(和)(预)(测)(。正)(是)(由)(于)(无)(法)(获)(取)(足)(够)(的)(市)(场)(细)(节)(知)(识)(与)(难)(以)(整)(合)(这)(些)(知)(识)(,中)(国)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(制)(定)(者)(不)(可)(能)(对)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(市)(场)(做)(出)(准)(确)(的)(预)(测)(。不)(能)(进)(行)(准)(确)(的)(市)(场)(预)(测)(,那)(么)(据)(此)(制)(定)(的)(计)(划)(与)(政)(策)(可)(能)(会)(出)(现)(系)(统)(性)(偏)(差)(,不)(但)(不)(能)(促)(使)(实)(际)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(向)(均)(衡)(趋)(势)(的)(回)(复)(,反)(而)(可)(能)(会)(加)(大)(对)(均)(衡)(趋)(势)(的)(偏)(离)(。本)(文)(的)(第)(三)(部)(分)(和)(第)(四)(部)(分)(的)(经)(验)(研)(究)(将)(为)(以)(上)(论)(点)(提)(供)(支)(持)(。
3、投)(资)(控)(制)(政)(策)(可)(能)(干)(扰)(市)(场)(过)(程)(造)(成)(不)(良)(影)(响)(
我)(国)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(试)(图)(通)(过)(严)(格)(项)(目)(审)(批)(、严)(格)(的)(市)(场)(准)(入)(管)(制)(、严)(格)(的)(项)(目)(审)(批)(、贷)(款)(行)(政)(审)(批)(和)(投)(资)(项)(目)(的)(技)(术)(标)(准)(准)(入)(等)(规)(制)(手)(段)(来)(实)(现)(市)(场)(的)(供)(需)(均)(衡)(、治)(理)(“重)(复)(建)(设)(”或)(是)(“产)(能)(过)(剩)(”,在)(很)(大)(程)(度)(上)(忽)(略)(了)(市)(场)(的)(过)(程)(价)(值)(,阻)(碍)(了)(市)(场)(自)(发)(调)(整)(过)(程)(,并)(可)(能)(引)(起)(无)(法)(预)(期)(的)(不)(良)(后)(果)(。
市)(场)(过)(程)(本)(质)(上)(就)(是)(争)(胜)(竞)(争)(的)(过)(程)(,争)(胜)(竞)(争)(是)(市)(场)(过)(程)(的)(灵)(魂)(和)(核)(心)(,是)(市)(场)(过)(程)(实)(现)(动)(态)(效)(率)(的)(关)(键)(。钢)(铁)(工)(业)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(以)(规)(制)(手)(段)(实)(现)(市)(场)(均)(衡)(,往)(往)(使)(得)(高)(效)(率)(企)(业)(进)(一)(步)(投)(资)(扩)(张)(受)(到)(抑)(制)(,而)(低)(效)(率)(企)(业)(免)(于)(面)(对)(更)(为)(激)(烈)(的)(市)(场)(竞)(争)(并)(获)(得)(继)(续)(生)(存)(的)(空)(间)(。尤)(其)(是)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(扶)(大)(限)(小)(的)(倾)(向)(十)(分)(明)(显)(,使)(大)(企)(业)(免)(于)(高)(效)(率)(中)(小)(企)(业)(不)(断)(扩)(张)(规)(模)(后)(带)(来)(的)(竞)(争)(压)(力)(,一)(些)(低)(效)(率)(的)(大)(企)(业)(因)(此)(获)(得)(了)(较)(大)(的)(继)(续)(生)(存)(空)(间)(,而)(高)(效)(率)(中)(小)(规)(模)(企)(业)(的)(发)(展)(却)(受)(到)(了)(很)(大)(的)(限)(制)(。显)(然)(,钢)(铁)(工)(业)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(在)(很)(大)(程)(度)(上)(阻)(碍)(了)(市)(场)(的)(争)(胜)(竞)(争)(过)(程)(,使)(市)(场)(竞)(争)(的)(“优)(胜)(劣)(汰)(”作)(用)(显)(著)(减)(弱)(,这)(会)(影)(响)(钢)(铁)(到)(工)(业)(发)(展)(中)(的)(动)(态)(效)(率)(。
市)(场)(争)(胜)(过)(程)(也)(是)(一)(个)(诱)(导)(和)(激)(发)(争)(胜)(主)(体)(连)(续)(、广)(泛)(寻)(找)(替)(代)(品)(和)(替)(代)(方)(式)(的)(动)(态)(过)(程)(,是)(竞)(争)(主)(体)(不)(断)(寻)(找)(和)(试)(验)(新)(知)(识)(的)(过)(程)((王)(廷)(惠)(,1,2005)。钢)(铁)(工)(业)(投)(资)(控)(制)(政)(策)(中)(严)(格)(的)(项)(目)(审)(批)(、严)(格)(的)(市)(场)(准)(入)(管)(制)(、投)(资)(项)(目)(的)(技)(术)(标)(准)(准)(入)(等)(措)(施)(在)(很)(大)(程)(度)(上)(忽)(略)(了)(这)(一)(过)(程)(价)(值)(,试)(图)(以)(政)(策)(部)(门)(对)(技)(术)(、生)(产)(方)(式)(的)(选)(择)(来)(代)(替)(企)(业)(的)(自)(主)(选)(择)(,这)(会)(限)(制)(企)(业)(不)(断)(寻)(找)(新)(技)(术)(和)(替)(代)(生)(产)(方)(式)(动)(态)(过)(程)(。2003年)(以)(来)(的)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(,有)(一)(个)(显)(著)(的)(特)(点)(就)(是)(以)(规)(模)(为)(标)(准)(、片)(面)(强)(调)(所)(谓)(规)(模)(收)(益)(、禁)(止)(小)(规)(模)(设)(备)(的)(投)(资)(,并)(要)(淘)(汰)(小)(规)(模)(设)(备)(所)(形)(成)(的)(产)(能)(。然)(而)(我)(国)(钢)(铁)(企)(业)(这)(些)(年)(来)(成)(功)(开)(发)(并)(使)(用)(了)(一)(系)(列)(先)(进)(适)(用)(技)(术)(,一)(些)(中)(小)(企)(业)(采)(用)(这)(些)(先)(进)(适)(用)(技)(术)(后)(焕)(然)(一)(新)(,许)(多)(生)(产)(指)(标)(处)(于)(全)(国)(领)(先)(水)(平)(。中)(小)(高)(炉)(技)(术)(也)(特)(别)(适)(合)(我)(国)(自)(有)(铁)(矿)(低)(品)(位)(、杂)(质)(含)(量)(高)(的)(特)(点)((高)(清)(举)(,2006)。对)(小)(规)(模)(设)(备)(投)(资)(的)(禁)(止)(与)(强)(行)(淘)(汰)(小)(规)(模)(设)(备)(所)(形)(成)(的)(产)(能)(,会)(阻)(碍)(一)(些)(中)(小)(型)(钢)(铁)(企)(业)(进)(一)(步)(寻)(找)(和)(研)(制)(符)(合)(中)(国)(实)(际)(国)(情)(和)(提)(高)(中)(小)(规)(模)(设)(备)(技)(术)(经)(济)(效)(率)(的)(先)(进)(适)(用)(技)(术)(,这)(些)(技)(术)(很)(可)(能)(在)(未)(来)(会)(较)(大)(的)(提)(高)(我)(国)(钢)(铁)(产)(业)(的)(生)(产)(效)(率)(。
政)(府)(的)(微)(观)(规)(制)(往)(往)(会)(阻)(碍)(市)(场)(的)(自)(发)(调)(整)(过)(程)(,产)(生)(新)(的)(市)(场)(过)(程)(,导)(致)(市)(场)(结)(果)(反)(而)(不)(如)(自)(由)(市)(场)(出)(现)(的)(结)(果)((王)(廷)(惠)(,2,2005)。中)(国)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(,以)(对)(企)(业)(投)(资)(的)(微)(观)(规)(制)(为)(手)(段)(治)(理)(“产)(能)(过)(剩)(”,同)(样)(会)(面)(临)(这)(个)(问)(题)(。鹤)(田)(俊)(正)((引)(自)(《日)(本)(的)(产)(业)(政)(策)(》第)(77至)(78页)()曾)(对)(日)(本)(旨)(在)(防)(止)(化)(学)(工)(业)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(的)(投)(资)(调)(整)(政)(策)(进)(行)(了)(研)(究)(分)(析)(,认)(为)(这)(一)(政)(策)(会)(破)(坏)(价)(格)(机)(制)(形)(成)(的)(自)(然)(投)(资)(节)(奏)(,容)(易)(出)(现)(各)(个)(企)(业)(一)(起)(进)(行)(同)(等)(规)(模)(投)(资)(的)(状)(况)(;为)(企)(业)(的)(设)(备)(投)(资)(在)(规)(模)(上)(设)(定)(高)(的)(审)(批)(标)(准)(,会)(使)(得)(企)(业)(为)(了)(得)(到)(政)(府)(批)(准)(的)(既)(得)(权)(益)(,做)(出)(过)(度)(的)(产)(能)(投)(资)(。从)(中)(国)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(运)(行)(情)(况)(来)(看)(,投)(资)(控)(制)(政)(策)(制)(定)(部)(门)(对)(市)(场)(需)(求)(以)(及)(需)(求)(结)(构)(变)(动)(的)(反)(应)(迟)(缓)(,往)(往)(制)(定)(过)(于)(紧)(缩)(的)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(,使)(得)(企)(业)(面)(对)(市)(场)(机)(会)(难)(以)(进)(行)(适)(当)(的)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(,影)(响)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(在)(市)(场)(机)(制)(作)(用)(下)(的)(自)(发)(调)(整)(;投)(资)(控)(制)(政)(策)(还)(导)(致)(了)(不)(必)(要)(的)(新)(市)(场)(过)(程)(,许)(多)(中)(小)(型)(钢)(铁)(企)(业)(为)(了)(避)(免)(未)(来)(成)(为)(规)(制)(政)(策)(的)(限)(制)(和)(淘)(汰)(对)(象)(,纷)(纷)(在)(地)(方)(政)(府)(的)(支)(持)(下)(快)(速)(扩)(充)(产)(能)(,许)(多)(钢)(铁)(企)(业)(为)(了)(能)(在)(规)(制)(政)(策)(收)(紧)(后)(获)(取)(更)(多)(的)(市)(场)(份)(额)(,并)(在)(今)(后)(的)(规)(制)(政)(策)(中)(得)(到)(更)(多)(的)(政)(策)(倾)(斜)(,往)(往)(同)(时)(在)(政)(策)(相)(对)(宽)(松)(时)(期)(尽)(可)(能)(高)(速)(度)(大)(规)(模)(进)(行)(产)(能)(投)(资)(。这)(样)(,钢)(铁)(工)(业)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(造)(成)(了)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(在)(“不)(足)(”与)(“过)(度)(”之)(间)(剧)(烈)(调)(整)(,并)(在)(一)(定)(程)(度)(上)(强)(化)(了)(钢)(铁)(企)(业)(过)(度)(产)(能)(投)(资)(的)(倾)(向)(。
本)(文)(稍)(后)(部)(分)(还)(会)(借)(助)(HP滤)(波)(的)(方)(法)(,通)(过)(对)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(波)(动)(性)(的)(分)(析)(进)(一)(步)(揭)(示)(投)(资)(控)(制)(政)(策)(对)(市)(场)(自)(发)(调)(节)(过)(程)(的)(阻)(碍)(,以)(及)(造)(成)(不)(良)(的)(影)(响)(。
三)(、钢)(铁)(产)(业)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(中)(持)(续)(的)(预)(测)(偏)(差)(问)(题)(
以)(下)(是)(对)(1994年)(以)(来)(我)(国)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(投)(资)(控)(制)(政)(策)(当)(局)(的)(预)(测)(与)(规)(划)(的)(考)(察)(:
九)(五)(规)(划)(中)(预)(测)(“2000年)(市)(场)(需)(求)(钢)(材)(产)(量)(达)(到)(9600万)(吨)(”,并)(以)(此)(做)(出)(规)(划)(安)(排)(,实)(际)(上)(2000年)(国)(内)(成)(品)(钢)(材)(消)(费)(量)(达)(14118万)(吨)(;九)(五)(规)(划)(中)(对)(高)(档)(板)(管)(带)(材)(需)(求)(快)(速)(增)(长)(预)(计)(不)(足)(。严)(格)(抑)(制)(投)(资)(的)(政)(策)(引)(起)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(持)(续)(负)(增)(长)(,使)(一)(批)(需)(要)(大)(量)(固)(定)(资)(本)(投)(入)(但)(对)(行)(业)(结)(构)(调)(整)(有)(重)(大)(影)(响)(的)(项)(目)(启)(动)(困)(难)(,很)(大)(程)(度)(上)(影)(响)(了)(行)(业)(结)(构)(调)(整)(的)(进)(程)((引)(自)(1999年)(《中)(国)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(年)(鉴)(》第)(337页)()。表)(现)(尤)(为)(突)(出)(的)(是)(,高)(档)(板)(材)(生)(产)(能)(力)(建)(设)(严)(重)(滞)(后)(于)(市)(场)(需)(求)(,1999年)(以)(来)(板)(材)(进)(口)(剧)(增)(,到)(2003年)(薄)(板)(净)(进)(口)(量)(就)(达)(到)(了)(2302.2万)(吨)(。十)(五)(规)(划)(预)(测)(“2005年)(钢)(材)(表)(观)(消)(费)(量)(达)(到)(14000万)(吨)(以)(上)(”,实)(际)(2004年)(的)(钢)(材)(表)(观)(消)(费)(量)(就)(达)(到)(了)(3亿)(吨)(以)(上)(,预)(测)(偏)(差)(大)(得)(惊)(人)(。
即)(使)(是)(短)(期)(预)(测)(,偏)(差)(也)(非)(常)(大)(。2000年)(,经)(贸)(委)(对)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(的)(总)(量)(控)(制)(目)(标)(为)(产)(钢)(1.1亿)(吨)(、钢)(材)(1亿)(吨)(,而)(实)(际)(产)(量)(钢)(材)(达)(到)(13146万)(吨)(、产)(钢)(12850万)(吨)(,钢)(材)(价)(格)(普)(遍)(上)(涨)(,钢)(材)(净)(进)(口)(972万)(吨)(。2001年)(、2002年)(总)(量)(控)(制)(的)(目)(标)(离)(实)(际)(需)(求)(偏)(差)(更)(大)(:2001年)(总)(量)(控)(制)(的)(目)(标)(是)(钢)(产)(量)(11500万)(吨)(、钢)(材)(10500万)(吨)(,而)(实)(际)(产)(钢)(量)(15163.44万)(吨)(,钢)(材)(产)(量)(达)(到)(16067万)(吨)(,钢)(胚)(、钢)(锭)(净)(进)(口)(544万)(吨)(,钢)(材)(净)(进)(口)(1247万)(吨)(,价)(格)(仅)(有)(小)(幅)(下)(降)(;2002年)(总)(量)(控)(制)(的)(目)(标)(是)(钢)(产)(量)(12500万)(吨)(,但)(是)(实)(际)(产)(钢)(量)(18224万)(吨)(,钢)(材)(表)(观)(消)(费)(量)(达)(到)(2.115亿)(吨)(,全)(年)(钢)(材)(价)(格)(整)(体)(上)(扬)(。
2003年)(,发)(展)(改)(革)(委)(员)(会)(、国)(土)(资)(源)(部)(等)(五)(个)(部)(委)(联)(合)(下)(达)(的)(《关)(于)(制)(止)(钢)(铁)(行)(业)(盲)(目)(投)(资)(的)(若)(干)(意)(见)(》中)(认)(为)(:“预)(计)(到)(2005年)(底)(将)(形)(成)(3.3亿)(吨)(钢)(铁)(生)(产)(能)(力)(,已)(大)(大)(超)(过)(2005年)(市)(场)(预)(期)(需)(求)(。……,如)(不)(加)(以)(引)(导)(调)(控)(,将)(导)(致)(一)(些)(品)(种)(产)(量)(严)(重)(过)(剩)(与)(市)(场)(过)(度)(竞)(争)(,……”。而)(实)(际)(情)(况)(是)(2004年)(产)(品)(价)(格)(大)(幅)(上)(升)(,产)(能)(超)(过)(34013万)(吨)(,大)(多)(数)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(企)(业)(满)(负)(荷)(生)(产)(,许)(多)(企)(业)(甚)(至)(超)(产)(,粗)(钢)(生)(产)(达)(到)(27279万)(吨)(,名)(义)(产)(能)(和)(与)(满)(负)(荷)(供)(给)(能)(力)(即)(实)(际)(产)(能)(之)(间)(存)(在)(很)(大)(差)(异)(。我)(国)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(生)(产)(能)(力)(的)(统)(计)(口)(径)(与)(计)(算)(方)(式)(显)(然)(存)(在)(一)(定)(的)(问)(题)(,以)(此)(种)(产)(能)(来)(判)(断)(市)(场)(供)(需)(状)(况)(的)(合)(理)(性)(是)(令)(人)(质)(疑)(的)((周)(希)(增)(,2006)。到)(2005年)(粗)(钢)(产)(量)(就)(达)(到)(了)(3.5亿)(吨)(,消)(费)(量)(达)(到)(3.76亿)(吨)(,以)(我)(国)(目)(前)(统)(计)(方)(式)(衡)(量)(的)(3.3亿)(吨)(名)(义)(产)(能)(远)(远)(不)(够)(。
2005年)(底)(,发)(改)(委)(认)(为)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(严)(重)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(,并)(在)(2006年)(初)(出)(台)(相)(关)(调)(控)(政)(策)(。但)(是)(2006年)(我)(国)(累)(计)(粗)(钢)(和)(钢)(材)(产)(量)(分)(别)(达)(41878.20万)(吨)(、46685万)(吨)(,同)(比)(分)(别)(增)(长)(18.5%、24.5%,全)(年)(钢)(铁)(产)(品)(价)(格)(显)(著)(上)(升)(,钢)(铁)(行)(业)(利)(润)(实)(现)(历)(史)(最)(好)(水)(平)(。市)(场)(需)(求)(远)(比)(预)(计)(强)(劲)(得)(多)(,产)(能)(过)(剩)(远)(没)(有)(政)(策)(当)(局)(预)(计)(的)(那)(么)(严)(重)(,甚)(至)(是)(否)(存)(在)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(都)(令)(人)(怀)(疑)(。
从)(以)(上)(考)(察)(,我)(们)(可)(以)(看)(出)(我)(国)(钢)(铁)(产)(业)(相)(关)(政)(策)(制)(订)(相)(关)(部)(门)(的)(市)(场)(预)(测)(、政)(策)(规)(划)(与)(市)(场)(实)(际)(情)(况)(之)(间)(一)(直)(存)(在)(很)(大)(的)(偏)(差)(。持)(续)(显)(著)(预)(测)(偏)(差)(的)(存)(在)(验)(证)(了)(本)(文)(前)(述)(理)(论)(分)(析)(中)(得)(出)(的)(“中)(国)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(制)(定)(者)(不)(可)(能)(对)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(市)(场)(做)(出)(准)(确)(的)(预)(测)(”的)(结)(论)(。预)(测)(偏)(差)(与)(规)(划)(失)(误)(也)(不)(可)(避)(免)(地)(导)(致)(了)(一)(些)(不)(良)(政)(策)(后)(果)(。
四)(、钢)(铁)(工)(业)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(对)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(的)(不)(良)(影)(响)(
1、数)(据)(来)(源)(
我)(们)(收)(集)(了)(从)(1993年)(-2005年)(钢)(铁)(产)(业)(、第)(二)(产)(业)(、建)(筑)(、电)(力)(、石)(油)(、房)(地)(产)(服)(务)(、运)(输)(邮)(电)(通)(信)(等)(基)(础)(性)(产)(业)(和)(全)(社)(会)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(的)(年)(度)(数)(据)(。数)(据)(来)(自)(万)(得)(资)(讯)(公)(司)(和)(中)(国)(经)(济)(信)(息)(网)(。本)(文)(使)(用)(Steel、JZY、Power、Oil、Realty、Transport、Chemistry、I2、China分)(别)(代)(表)(钢)(铁)(产)(业)(、建)(筑)(业)(、电)(力)(行)(业)(、石)(油)(行)(业)(、房)(地)(产)(服)(务)(业)(、运)(输)(邮)(电)(通)(信)(业)(、化)(工)(业)(、第)(二)(产)(业)(和)(全)(社)(会)(的)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(额)(时)(间)(序)(列)(。
2、研)(究)(方)(法)(
本)(文)(主)(要)(通)(过)(使)(用)(HP滤)(波)(方)(法)(分)(析)(投)(资)(缺)(口)(分)(布)(和)(投)(资)(波)(动)(,进)(而)(分)(析)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(对)(投)(资)(行)(为)(的)(不)(良)(影)(响)(与)(后)(续)(效)(应)(。Hodrick-Prescott(HP)滤)(波)(方)(法)(就)(是)(测)(定)(序)(列)(长)(期)(趋)(势)(的)(一)(种)(方)(法)(,该)(方)(法)(在)(Hodrick和)(Prescott(1997)分)(析)(战)(后)(美)(国)(经)(济)(周)(期)(的)(论)(文)(中)(首)(次)(使)(用)(,其)(后)(应)(用)(范)(围)(不)(断)(拓)(展)(。HP滤)(波)(法)(的)(优)(势)(在)(于)(可)(以)(将)(趋)(势)(要)(素)(和)(循)(环)(要)(素)(进)(行)(分)(解)(而)(又)(不)(像)(频)(谱)(滤)(波)(方)(法)(那)(样)(会)(损)(失)(序)(列)(首)(尾)(的)(数)(据)(,通)(过)(对)(惩)(罚)(因)(子)(的)(调)(整)(,HP滤)(波)(相)(对)(于)(CensusX12平)(滑)(法)(和)(Tramo/Seats等)(方)(法)(又)(更)(为)(灵)(活)(。在)(惩)(罚)(因)(子)(选)(择)(上)(,对)(于)(年)(度)(数)(据)(,本)(文)(使)(用)(经)(济)(合)(作)(与)(发)(展)(组)(织)((OECD)建)(议)(的)(。
3、钢)(铁)(产)(业)(的)(投)(资)(缺)(口)(
对)(时)(间)(序)(列)(进)(行)(HP滤)(波)(分)(解)(即)(可)(得)(到)(其)(趋)(势)(序)(列)(和)(波)(动)(序)(列)(。趋)(势)(序)(列)(描)(述)(的)(序)(列)(长)(期)(和)(潜)(在)(的)(运)(行)(趋)(势)(,波)(动)(序)(列)(则)(描)(述)(了)(序)(列)(实)(际)(值)(相)(对)(于)(趋)(势)(序)(列)(的)(上)(下)(波)(动)(情)(况)(,通)(常)(又)(可)(以)(称)(为)(“缺)(口)(”序)(列)(。图)(1是)(钢)(铁)(产)(业)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(增)(速)(序)(列)(图)(,图)(2是)(钢)(产)(量)(的)(分)(解)(计)(算)(结)(果)(,图)(3和)(图)(4分)(别)(是)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(的)(年)(度)(数)(据)(和)(季)(度)(数)(据)(的)(分)(解)(计)(算)(结)(果)(。
图)(1反)(映)(出)(1993年)(以)(来)(钢)(铁)(产)(业)(的)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(呈)(现)(出)(极)(强)(的)(波)(动)(性)(,固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(增)(长)(最)(快)(的)(2003年)(,投)(资)(额)(几)(乎)(翻)(倍)(,而)(1996年)(至)(2000年)(投)(资)(额)(则)(出)(现)(了)(持)(续)(的)(下)(降)(。从)(图)(2可)(以)(看)(出)(:在)(1997年)(前)(钢)(产)(量)(高)(于)(潜)(在)(产)(出)(,1997年)(至)(2003年)(钢)(产)(量)(低)(于)(潜)(在)(产)(出)(,而)(2003年)(之)(后)(产)(量)(再)(次)(高)(出)(了)(潜)(在)(产)(出)(。从)(对)(年)(度)(投)(资)(额)(数)(据)(的)(计)(算)(结)(果)((图)(3)来)(看)(,以)(1997年)(和)(2003年)(为)(分)(界)(点)(,可)(以)(将)(1993年)(至)(2005年)(的)(整)(个)(区)(间)(划)(分)(为)(3个)(子)(区)(间)(。从)(1993年)(至)(1997年)(,波)(动)(序)(列)(始)(终)(为)(正)(,说)(明)(钢)(铁)(产)(业)(的)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(存)(在)(正)(向)(缺)(口)(;从)(1997年)(至)(2003年)(,存)(在)(负)(向)(缺)(口)(;2003年)(之)(后)(,又)(转)(变)(为)(存)(在)(正)(向)(缺)(口)(。钢)(铁)(产)(业)(的)(产)(出)(缺)(口)(和)(投)(资)(缺)(口)(具)(有)(相)(同)(分)(布)(,这)(说)(明)(了)(钢)(产)(量)(在)(很)(大)(程)(度)(上)(受)(到)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(额)(的)(影)(响)(。
使)(用)(HP滤)(波)(方)(法)(所)(得)(到)(的)(计)(算)(结)(果)(表)(明)(:1、钢)(铁)(产)(业)(的)(投)(资)(在)(1997年)(至)(2003年)(存)(在)(长)(期)(而)(显)(著)(的)(负)(向)(缺)(口)(。而)(存)(在)(如)(此)(巨)(大)(缺)(口)(的)(直)(接)(原)(因)(就)(在)(于)(1996年)(-2000年)(钢)(铁)(产)(业)(投)(资)(额)(的)(持)(续)(下)(降)(,以)(及)(2001年)(—2002年)(的)(投)(资)(恢)(复)(性)(增)(长)(相)(对)(不)(够)(迅)(速)(。2、钢)(产)(量)(在)(1997年)(至)(2003年)(亦)(存)(在)(一)(个)(长)(期)(而)(显)(著)(的)(负)(向)(缺)(口)(,表)(示)(钢)(产)(量)(低)(于)(国)(民)(经)(济)(发)(展)(的)(所)(需)(。相)(应)(年)(份)(《中)(国)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(年)(鉴)(》关)(于)(钢)(铁)(市)(场)(运)(行)(情)(况)(的)(描)(述)(表)(明)(:1997年)(-2000年)(产)(量)(缺)(口)(主)(要)(是)(结)(构)(性)(的)(,即)(高)(档)(板)(管)(带)(生)(产)(不)(足)(而)(建)(筑)(用)(钢)(材)(等)(其)(它)(低)(附)(加)(值)(产)(品)(的)(生)(产)(相)(对)(过)(剩)(,但)(从)(整)(体)(上)(高)(档)(材)(不)(足)(的)(缺)(口)(要)(大)(于)(低)(附)(加)(值)(产)(品)(生)(产)(的)(过)(剩)(量)(;2001年)(-2003年)(产)(品)(结)(构)(问)(题)(变)(得)(更)(为)(突)(出)(,同)(时)(钢)(产)(量)(也)(开)(始)(出)(现)(不)(足)(,板)(材)(尤)(其)(是)(薄)(板)(价)(格)(大)(幅)(度)(上)(升)(,净)(进)(口)(量)(激)(增)(,钢)(胚)(钢)(锭)(也)(由)(净)(出)(口)(变)(成)(净)(进)(口)(。
4、投)(资)(波)(动)(的)(跨)(产)(业)(比)(较)(
前)(面)(我)(们)(通)(过)(HP滤)(波)(方)(法)(分)(析)(了)(钢)(铁)(产)(业)(自)(身)(的)(投)(资)(波)(动)(和)(产)(量)(波)(动)(,下)(面)(我)(们)(将)(对)(钢)(铁)(产)(业)(和)(其)(他)(产)(业)(的)(投)(资)(波)(动)(状)(况)(进)(行)(对)(比)(。图)(5描)(绘)(的)(是)(各)(产)(业)(历)(年)(的)(投)(资)(增)(长)(率)(,图)(5描)(绘)(的)(是)(各)(产)(业)(投)(资)(额)(的)(相)(对)(趋)(势)(,图)(6中)(Cycle/Trend反)(映)(的)(是)(各)(产)(业)(的)(实)(际)(序)(列)(相)(对)(于)(长)(期)(趋)(势)(的)(偏)(离)(率)(。通)(过)(图)(4、图)(5和)(图)(6,我)(们)(可)(以)(分)(析)(比)(较)(各)(产)(业)(的)(投)(资)(波)(动)(幅)(度)(。在)(图)(4中)(,我)(们)(可)(以)(发)(现)(:钢)(铁)(产)(业)(的)(投)(资)(增)(速)(几)(乎)(始)(终)(位)(于)(各)(曲)(线)(的)(最)(上)(方)(或)(最)(下)(方)(,波)(动)(幅)(度)(在)(各)(产)(业)(中)(最)(为)(剧)(烈)(;在)(1996年)(至)(2000年)(,钢)(铁)(产)(业)(的)(投)(资)(出)(现)(了)(长)(达)(5年)(的)(持)(续)(下)(降)(且)(在)(各)(产)(业)(中)(增)(速)(最)(低)(;在)(2001年)(之)(后)(,钢)(铁)(产)(业)(的)(投)(资)(增)(长)(率)(持)(续)(上)(升)(,几)(乎)(一)(直)(是)(各)(产)(业)(中)(最)(高)(的)(。图)(5反)(映)(了)(和)(图)(4同)(样)(的)(现)(象)(,在)(相)(对)(趋)(势)(的)(比)(较)(中)(,钢)(铁)(产)(业)(的)(相)(对)(趋)(势)(始)(终)(在)(最)(上)(方)(或)(最)(下)(方)(。在)(图)(6中)(,我)(们)(可)(以)(发)(现)(:钢)(铁)(产)(业)(的)(实)(际)(投)(资)(序)(列)(相)(对)(于)(长)(期)(趋)(势)(的)(偏)(离)(率)(呈)(现)(出)(较)(增)(长)(率)(更)(强)(的)(波)(动)(特)(征)(,相)(对)(于)(其)(他)(产)(业)(的)(波)(动)(幅)(度)(也)(更)(为)(剧)(烈)(,钢)(铁)(产)(业)(的)(偏)(离)(率)(曲)(线)(始)(终)(位)(于)(图)(形)(的)(最)(上)(方)(和)(最)(下)(方)(。从)(图)(3可)(以)(看)(出)(1997年)(-2003年)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(存)(在)(显)(著)(负)(向)(缺)(口)(,图)(6进)(一)(步)(显)(示)(这)(一)(负)(向)(缺)(口)(持)(续)(时)(间)(比)(全)(社)(会)(以)(及)(其)(他)(基)(础)(性)(行)(业)(负)(向)(缺)(口)(的)(持)(续)(时)(间)(长)(,而)(且)(偏)(离)(程)(度)(远)(远)(高)(于)(全)(社)(会)(及)(其)(他)(基)(础)(性)(行)(业)(。从)(整)(个)(考)(察)(期)(来)(看)(,钢)(铁)(工)(业)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(波)(幅)(极)(大)(、周)(期)(较)(长)(、调)(整)(剧)(烈)(,呈)(现)(出)(与)(全)(社)(会)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(小)(幅)(度)(、较)(短)(周)(期)(波)(动)(迥)(然)(不)(同)(的)(特)(点)(。钢)(铁)(行)(业)(是)(国)(家)(的)(基)(础)(性)(支)(柱)(产)(业)(,一)(直)(以)(来)(是)(相)(关)(部)(门)(重)(点)(管)(制)(调)(控)(的)(对)(象)(,看)(来)(这)(种)(管)(制)(调)(控)(并)(未)(使)(得)(这)(一)(行)(业)(的)(波)(动)(小)(于)(其)(它)(行)(业)(,反)(而)(使)(这)(种)(波)(动)(幅)(度)(远)(甚)(于)(其)(它)(产)(业)(。
5、从)(长)(期)(显)(著)(投)(资)(缺)(口)(、投)(资)(异)(常)(波)(动)(看)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(的)(不)(良)(影)(响)(
结)(合)(HP滤)(波)(分)(析)(与)(对)(投)(资)(规)(制)(政)(策)(的)(系)(统)(性)(考)(察)(,我)(们)(将)(不)(难)(看)(出)(我)(国)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(的)(投)(资)(控)(制)(政)(策)(存)(在)(显)(著)(的)(不)(当)(政)(策)(调)(控)(问)(题)(,这)(种)(不)(当)(调)(控)(阻)(碍)(了)(市)(场)(的)(发)(现)(过)(程)(和)(自)(然)(调)(整)(过)(程)(,阻)(碍)(了)(企)(业)(家)(在)(市)(场)(引)(导)(下)(自)(然)(的)(投)(资)(调)(整)(过)(程)(,引)(起)(了)(较)(长)(时)(间)(内)(投)(资)(不)(足)(,钢)(铁)(工)(业)(产)(品)(结)(构)(调)(整)(缓)(慢)(以)(及)(投)(资)(异)(常)(剧)(烈)(的)(波)(动)(。
从)(图)(3和)(图)(6我)(们)(均)(可)(以)(看)(出)(,从)(1997年)(开)(始)(投)(资)(缺)(口)(转)(为)(负)(向)(,表)(明)(投)(资)(已)(经)(开)(始)(不)(足)(,但)(是)(直)(到)(2000年)(,钢)(铁)(产)(业)(依)(旧)(实)(行)(严)(格)(控)(制)(新)(开)(工)(项)(目)(、严)(格)(项)(目)(审)(批)(以)(及)(制)(止)(重)(复)(建)(设)(等)(严)(格)(投)(资)(控)(制)(政)(策)(,导)(致)(在)(这)(一)(期)(间)(投)(资)(额)(持)(续)(减)(少)(,但)(同)(一)(时)(期)(随)(着)(国)(民)(经)(济)(的)(快)(速)(增)(长)(,钢)(铁)(产)(业)(市)(场)(需)(求)(规)(模)(的)(扩)(大)(与)(产)(品)(需)(求)(结)(构)(有)(较)(大)(的)(变)(化)(,所)(需)(的)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(额)(不)(断)(增)(加)(,这)(一)(时)(期)(实)(际)(投)(资)(额)(对)(市)(场)(实)(际)(所)(需)(投)(资)(额)(的)(偏)(离)(就)(越)(来)(越)(大)(,这)(在)(图)(6中)(表)(现)(为)(1997年)(至)(2000年)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(偏)(离)(率)(绝)(对)(值)(急)(剧)(增)(加)(。2000年)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(不)(足)(的)(问)(题)(已)(经)(比)(较)(严)(重)((图)(6中)(表)(现)(为)(偏)(离)(率)(高)(达)(50%以)(上)(),但)(2001年)(-2002年)(实)(行)(的)(总)(量)(控)(制)(政)(策)(,依)(然)(要)(求)(对)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(进)(行)(较)(为)(严)(格)(的)(控)(制)(,这)(与)(市)(场)(趋)(势)(存)(在)(较)(大)(的)(偏)(离)(,影)(响)(了)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(向)(国)(民)(经)(济)(所)(需)(投)(资)(额)(的)(快)(速)(调)(整)(,这)(两)(年)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(偏)(离)(度)(绝)(对)(值)(依)(然)(在)(40%以)(上)(。显)(然)(,在)(1997年)(以)(后)(在)(钢)(铁)(产)(业)(继)(续)(实)(行)(严)(格)(控)(制)(投)(资)(政)(策)(是)(对)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(的)(不)(当)(调)(控)(。这)(种)(政)(策)(的)(不)(当)(调)(控)(加)(大)(了)(实)(际)(投)(资)(向)(均)(衡)(趋)(势)(的)(偏)(离)(程)(度)(,也)(阻)(碍)(了)(实)(际)(投)(资)(向)(均)(衡)(趋)(势)(的)(迅)(速)(调)(整)(,严)(重)(干)(扰)(了)(在)(市)(场)(机)(制)(引)(导)(下)(企)(业)(家)(对)(投)(资)(数)(量)(与)(投)(资)(方)(向)(的)(自)(然)(调)(整)(。这)(一)(点)(在)(图)(6中)(得)(到)(很)(直)(观)(的)(反)(映)(,钢)(铁)(工)(业)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(的)(负)(向)(缺)(口)(不)(但)(持)(续)(时)(间)(显)(著)(长)(于)(其)(他)(行)(业)(,而)(且)(负)(向)(缺)(口)(的)(偏)(离)(程)(度)(也)(远)(远)(大)(于)(其)(它)(行)(业)(,形)(成)(一)(个)(长)(期)(显)(著)(的)(“投)(资)(缺)(口)(”。长)(时)(间)(内)(严)(重)(的)(投)(资)(不)(足)(使)(得)(产)(品)(结)(构)(调)(整)(速)(度)(与)(产)(能)(增)(加)(速)(度)(过)(于)(缓)(慢)(,进)(而)(使)(得)(这)(一)(期)(间)(的)(产)(品)(结)(构)(问)(题)(和)(产)(能)(不)(足)(问)(题)(越)(来)(越)(突)(出)(。
投)(资)(控)(制)(政)(策)(同)(时)(造)(成)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(的)(剧)(烈)(波)(动)(。2003年)(,长)(期)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(不)(足)(引)(发)(的)(产)(能)(不)(足)(和)(产)(品)(结)(构)(问)(题)(更)(为)(突)(出)(,钢)(材)(价)(格)(尤)(其)(是)(板)(管)(带)(材)(价)(格)(进)(一)(步)(快)(速)(上)(扬)(。价)(格)(的)(快)(速)(上)(涨)(使)(政)(策)(当)(局)(对)(严)(重)(供)(不)(应)(求)(的)(市)(场)(状)(况)(得)(以)(确)(认)(,放)(松)(了)(对)(投)(资)(的)(管)(制)(。管)(制)(的)(放)(松)(与)(价)(格)(信)(号)(的)(强)(力)(刺)(激)(,引)(发)(钢)(铁)(企)(业)(同)(步)(、大)(量)(的)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(,造)(成)(投)(资)(的)(暴)(发)(性)(增)(长)(,最)(终)(导)(致)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(在)(“过)(冷)(”与)(“过)(热)(”之)(间)(的)(剧)(烈)(波)(动)(。我)(们)(还)(关)(注)(到)(,前)(期)(较)(长)(时)(间)(内)(投)(资)(严)(重)(不)(足)(引)(发)(近)(年)(来)(投)(资)(的)(快)(速)(增)(长)(具)(有)(一)(定)(的)(合)(理)(性)(和)(必)(然)(性)(,不)(能)(简)(单)(定)(性)(为)(“盲)(目)(投)(资)(”与)(“过)(度)(投)(资)(”。这)(种)(投)(资)(的)(快)(速)(增)(长)(是)(对)(前)(期)(钢)(铁)(产)(业)(投)(资)(不)(足)(的)(一)(种)(“补)(缺)(”,是)(前)(期)(投)(资)(不)(足)(、产)(品)(结)(构)(调)(整)(和)(国)(民)(经)(济)(重)(工)(业)(化)(的)(必)(然)(结)(果)(。
五)(、结)(论)(与)(政)(策)(建)(议)(
本)(文)(研)(究)(表)(明)(我)(国)(以)(治)(理)(“重)(复)(建)(设)(”或)(“产)(能)(过)(剩)(”为)(目)(标)(的)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(投)(资)(控)(制)(政)(策)(存)(在)(三)(个)(主)(要)(缺)(陷)(,并)(导)(致)(一)(些)(不)(良)(政)(策)(效)(应)(:1、“重)(复)(建)(设)(”或)(“产)(能)(过)(剩)(”是)(由)(于)(地)(方)(政)(府)(对)(微)(观)(经)(济)(的)(不)(当)(干)(预)(造)(成)(的)(,投)(资)(控)(制)(政)(策)(不)(能)(治)(理)(其)(根)(本)(。2、钢)(铁)(工)(业)(投)(资)(控)(制)(政)(策)(制)(定)(机)(构)(不)(可)(能)(获)(取)(规)(制)(所)(需)(的)(信)(息)(和)(知)(识)(,也)(就)(不)(可)(能)(对)(市)(场)(运)(行)(进)(行)(准)(确)(的)(市)(场)(预)(测)(和)(制)(定)(合)(意)(的)(投)(资)(控)(制)(政)(策)(。3、以)(规)(制)(方)(式)(治)(理)(“产)(能)(过)(剩)(”还)(会)(阻)(碍)(市)(场)(的)(发)(现)(过)(程)(和)(自)(发)(调)(整)(过)(程)(,导)(致)(不)(良)(的)(政)(策)(的)(效)(果)(。4、对)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(投)(资)(控)(制)(政)(策)(及)(其)(对)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(影)(响)(的)(经)(验)(性)(研)(究)(为)(理)(论)(分)(析)(提)(供)(了)(经)(验)(支)(持)(:我)(国)(政)(策)(当)(局)(对)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(市)(场)(及)(其)(变)(化)(的)(判)(断)(和)(预)(测)(,与)(实)(际)(市)(场)(运)(行)(一)(直)(存)(在)(很)(大)(的)(偏)(差)(;对)(市)(场)(需)(求)(结)(构)(变)(动)(与)(市)(场)(规)(模)(迅)(速)(增)(长)(的)(估)(计)(不)(足)(,造)(成)(我)(国)(政)(策)(当)(局)(对)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(严)(格)(限)(制)(政)(策)(的)(长)(期)(超)(调)(,使)(得)(这)(一)(时)(期)(我)(国)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(严)(重)(不)(足)(,阻)(碍)(了)(钢)(铁)(企)(业)(投)(资)(在)(市)(场)(机)(制)(调)(节)(下)(的)(正)(常)(调)(整)(,也)(阻)(碍)(了)(钢)(铁)(产)(品)(结)(构)(的)(迅)(速)(调)(整)(与)(技)(术)(装)(备)(的)(及)(时)(更)(新)(,并)(引)(起)(钢)(铁)(工)(业)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(在)(“过)(冷)(”和)(“过)(热)(”之)(间)(剧)(烈)(波)(动)(。
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