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广发郭磊:再谈汇率的三个标尺

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年05月23日 03:03:00
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(  作)(者)(:广)(发)(宏)(观)(郭)(磊)(
  人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(的)(近)(期)(波)(动)(引)(起)(市)(场)(关)(注)(。从)(4月)(中)(旬)(算)(起)(,本)(轮)(人)(民)(币)(贬)(值)(幅)(度)(大)(约)(在)(5%左)(右)(,基)(本)(上)(抵)(消)(掉)(去)(年)(底)(至)(2月)(中)(旬)(的)(升)(值)(幅)(度)(。汇)(率)(变)(动)(是)(否)(包)(含)(策)(略)(性)(考)(量)(的)(猜)(测)(不)(容)(易)(证)(实)(或)(证)(伪)(,但)(从)(基)(本)(面)(角)(度)(,我)(们)(则)(大)(致)(可)(以)(理)(解)(汇)(率)(变)(动)(的)(逻)(辑)(。
  先)(说)(理)(论)(:汇)(率)(定)(价)(的)(三)(个)(标)(尺)(。在)(《人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(的)(三)(个)(标)(尺)(》中)(,我)(们)(曾)(指)(出)(,金)(融)(资)(产)(是)(一)(种)(具)(有)(不)(确)(定)(性)(的)(远)(期)(凭)(证)(,它)(的)(定)(价)(由)(三)(个)(因)(素)(决)(定)(,一)(是)(预)(期)(收)(益)(,或)(叫)(资)(产)(盈)(利)(能)(力)(;二)(是)(贴)(现)(率)(,或)(者)(叫)(时)(间)(成)(本)(;三)(是)(风)(险)(,或)(者)(叫)(概)(率)(。股)(票)(、债)(券)(、商)(品)(的)(定)(价)(均)(不)(离)(这)(一)(基)(本)(框)(架)(。就)(汇)(率)(来)(说)(,它)(构)(成)(汇)(率)(定)(价)(的)(三)(个)(标)(尺)(:购)(买)(力)(平)(价)(、利)(率)(平)(价)(和)(风)(险)(溢)(价)(。我)(们)(可)(以)(看)(到)(,三)(个)(角)(度)(的)(影)(子)(指)(标)(都)(对)(于)(中)(美)(汇)(率)(走)(势)(有)(很)(好)(的)(解)(释)(力)((图)()。
  从)(购)(买)(力)(平)(价)(的)(角)(度)(,相)(对)(经)(济)(增)(速)(差)(加)(大)(了)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(压)(力)(。美)(国)(目)(前)(仍)(处)(于)(“复)(苏)(走)(向)(过)(热)(”的)(阶)(段)(,拐)(点)(暂)(未)(出)(现)(,美)(元)(偏)(强)(;贸)(易)(战)(风)(险)(和)(紧)(信)(用)(的)(环)(境)(带)(来)(Q2之)(后)(中)(国)(经)(济)(放)(缓)(的)(预)(期)(,相)(对)(经)(济)(增)(速)(差)(短)(期)(加)(大)(了)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(压)(力)(。
  从)(利)(差)(角)(度)(,“中)(美)(货)(币)(政)(策)(逆)(周)(期)(形)(成)(”的)(印)(象)(加)(大)(汇)(率)(压)(力)(。6月)(14日)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(,且)(点)(阵)(图)(显)(示)(今)(年)(加)(息)(预)(期)(由)(3次)(上)(调)(为)(4次)(;而)(为)(支)(持)(小)(微)(,中)(国)(人)(民)(银)(行)(24日)(定)(向)(降)(准)(,25日)(定)(向)(下)(调)(支)(小)(再)(贷)(款)(利)(率)(,给)(市)(场)(一)(定)(的)(“中)(美)(货)(币)(政)(策)(逆)(周)(期)(形)(成)(”的)(印)(象)(,从)(而)(短)(期)(美)(元)(偏)(强)(,人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(压)(力)(有)(所)(加)(大)(。这)(一)(点)(也)(是)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(在)(本)(轮)(美)(国)(加)(息)(周)(期)(中)(普)(遍)(面)(临)(的)(问)(题)(,阿)(根)(廷)(、土)(耳)(其)(、巴)(西)(、印)(度)(等)(国)(货)(币)(或)(多)(或)(少)(都)(面)(临)(这)(一)(问)(题)(。
  从)(风)(险)(溢)(价)(角)(度)(,系)(统)(性)(风)(险)(上)(升)(的)(理)(解)(导)(致)(短)(期)(汇)(率)(压)(力)(加)(大)(。贸)(易)(战)(风)(险)(和)(信)(用)(市)(场)(环)(境)(的)(二)(元)(化)(短)(期)(带)(来)(中)(国)(资)(产)(风)(险)(上)(升)(的)(理)(解)(,从)(而)(也)(导)(致)(短)(期)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(压)(力)(有)(所)(加)(大)(。
  从)(上)(述)(特)(征)(来)(看)(,目)(前)(汇)(率)(逻)(辑)(有)(点)(类)(似)(于)(2015-2016年)(。那)(一)(时)(段)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(走)(势)(特)(征)(是)(“趋)(势)(性)(贬)(值)(”叠)(加)(“阶)(段)(性)(拉)(回)(”,全)(年)(幅)(度)(连)(续)(两)(年)(都)(是)(6%左)(右)(;2017年)(经)(济)(回)(升)(叠)(加)(风)(险)(排)(除)(,则)(是)(升)(值)(6%左)(右)(。
  由)(于)(2018年)(人)(民)(币)(上)(半)(年)(积)(累)(了)(一)(定)(升)(值)(幅)(度)(,4月)(以)(来)(这)(轮)(汇)(率)(走)(低)(下)(来)(,人)(民)(币)(较)(去)(年)(底)(大)(概)(贬)(值)(1%左)(右)(。一)(季)(度)(货)(币)(政)(策)(执)(行)(报)(告)(的)(定)(位)(是)(“加)(大)(市)(场)(决)(定)(汇)(率)(的)(力)(度)(,保)(持)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(在)(合)(理)(均)(衡)(水)(平)(上)(的)(基)(本)(稳)(定)(”,我)(们)(估)(计)(年)(升)(值)(或)(贬)(值)(5%左)(右)((不)(会)(显)(著)(影)(响)(国)(内)(居)(民)(预)(期)()都)(属)(于)(这)(个)(范)(围)(。
  从)(中)(期)(来)(看)(,我)(们)(倾)(向)(于)(认)(为)(人)(民)(币)(仍)(处)(于)(购)(买)(力)(平)(价)(下)(的)(升)(值)(趋)(势)(中)(;但)(短)(期)(的)(汇)(率)(波)(动)(可)(能)(带)(来)(资)(金)(流)(动)(和)(风)(险)(偏)(好)(的)(波)(动)(。在)(可)(能)(出)(现)(影)(响)(经)(济)(预)(期)(、利)(差)(、风)(险)(因)(素)(的)(关)(键)(时)(段)(,应)(予)(以)(警)(惕)(。汇)(率)(和)(财)(政)(一)(般)(是)(经)(济)(信)(号)(向)(政)(策)(考)(量)(传)(递)(的)(两)(个)(关)(键)(点)(,汇)(率)(的)(稳)(定)(也)(会)(成)(为)(下)(半)(年)(货)(币)(政)(策)(边)(际)(调)(整)(的)(驱)(动)(之)(一)(。
  险)(提)(示)(
  经)(济)(超)(预)(期)(变)(动)(或)(美)(元)(变)(动)(幅)(度)(超)(预)(期)(
  来)(源)(:郭)(磊)(宏)(观)(茶)(座)(
)


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