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惊变一周:资金收紧下的中期调整

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年05月23日 03:31:40
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(  编)(者)(按)(  6月)(19日)(,上)(证)(综)(指)(跌)(幅)(达)(到)(6.42%,而)(所)(在)(的)(这)(一)(周)(,A股)(持)(续)(下)(跌)(,使)(得)(市)(场)(对)(于)(这)(一)(轮)(牛)(市)(的)(调)(整)(预)(判)(产)(生)(了)(变)(化)(,认)(为)(牛)(市)(格)(局)(未)(变)(化)(,但)(是)(调)(整)(的)(力)(度)(远)(超)(预)(期)(。在)(这)(一)(次)(深)(度)(调)(整)(中)(,最)(明)(显)(的)(推)(动)(力)(则)(在)(于)(资)(金)(的)(变)(化)(。首)(当)(其)(冲)(的)(是)(监)(管)(层)(查)(杠)(杆)(资)(金)(,这)(不)(但)(使)(得)(融)(资)(降)(低)(,同)(时)(在)(大)(跌)(时)(,造)(成)(高)(杠)(杆)(融)(资)(杀)(跌)(平)(仓)(。国)(泰)(君)(安)(的)(上)(市)(也)(造)(成)(了)(资)(金)(的)(紧)(张)(,另)(外)(,银)(行)(以)(及)(企)(业)(面)(临)(着)(年)(中)(考)(核)(,从)(股)(市)(中)(抽)(走)(资)(金)(或)(减)(少)(股)(市)(资)(金)(投)(放)(的)(现)(象)(也)(存)(在)(。同)(时)(,在)(政)(策)(上)(,市)(场)(普)(遍)(预)(期)(货)(币)(政)(策)(将)(进)(入)(观)(察)(期)(,短)(期)(不)(会)(有)(大)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(调)(整)(,而)(重)(点)(转)(向)(财)(政)(政)(策)(。  核)(心)(摘)(要)(  北)(京)(私)(募)(基)(金)(人)(士)(向)(21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(记)(者)(证)(实)(:“目)(前)(,招)(商)(银)(行)(配)(资)(已)(经)(不)(放)(款)(了)(,浦)(发)(直)(接)(就)(停)(了)(,兴)(业)(银)(行)(本)(来)(周)(二)(放)(的)(,最)(开)(始)(说)(改)(周)(五)(,然)(后)(周)(五)(通)(知)(改)(下)(周)(三)(。目)(前)(能)(配)(到)(的)(也)(只)(配)(到)(1:1.5。在)(证)(监)(会)(控)(制)(杠)(杆)(风)(险)(的)(表)(态)(后)(,大)(家)(都)(降)(低)(了)(杠)(杆)(。”  本)(报)(记)(者)(周)(松)(清)(重)(庆)(报)(道)(  这)(是)(A股)(牛)(市)(以)(来)(最)(黑)(暗)(,也)(是)(最)(漫)(长)(的)(一)(周)(,在)(这)(一)(周)(的)(时)(间)(里)(面)(,上)(证)(指)(数)(跌)(幅)(达)(到)(13.32%,创)(业)(板)(指)(数)(跌)(幅)(达)(到)(14.99%,而)(更)(多)(的)(热)(门)(股)(票)(普)(遍)(跌)(幅)(都)(在)(30%左)(右)(。  6月)(19日)(,三)(大)(指)(数)(低)(开)(低)(走)(,午)(后)(大)(幅)(跳)(水)(,沪)(指)(一)(度)(跌)(破)(4500点)(,权)(重)(题)(材)(纷)(纷)(大)(幅)(下)(跌)(,公)(共)(交)(通)(板)(块)(跌)(幅)(超)(9%,交)(通)(设)(施)(、有)(色)(钢)(铁)(、旅)(游)(、环)(境)(、房)(地)(产)(等)(跌)(幅)(超)(8%,航)(空)(、证)(券)(板)(块)(跌)(幅)(最)(少)(,跌)(幅)(依)(旧)(超)(4%。  截)(至)(收)(盘)(,上)(证)(指)(数)(报)(4478.36点)(,大)(跌)(306.99点)(,跌)(幅)(6.42%,深)(成)(指)(报)(15725.47点)(,下)(跌)(1009.37点)(,跌)(幅)(6.03%,创)(业)(板)(指)(数)(报)(3314.98点)(,下)(跌)(189.58点)(,跌)(幅)(5.41%。沪)(指)(本)(周)(大)(跌)(687.99点)(,周)(跌)(幅)(13.32%,创)(七)(年)(以)(来)(最)(大)(单)(周)(跌)(幅)(。两)(市)(仅)(126只)(股)(票)(上)(涨)(,49只)(股)(票)(涨)(停)(,2198只)(股)(票)(下)(跌)(,1005只)(股)(票)(跌)(停)(。  虽)(然)(上)(证)(指)(数)(6月)(19日)(跌)(幅)(弱)(低)(于)(5月)(28日)(的)(6.5%,但)(由)(于)(是)(在)(本)(周)(持)(续)(下)(跌)(之)(下)(再)(暴)(跌)(,这)(就)(使)(得)(此)(次)(暴)(跌)(更)(为)(惨)(烈)(。  牛)(市)(还)(在)(么)(?上)(海)(一)(位)(证)(券)(策)(略)(分)(析)(师)(向)(21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(记)(者)(表)(示)(:“从)(趋)(势)(来)(看)(,这)(轮)(调)(整)(已)(经)(超)(过)(所)(有)(调)(整)(逻)(辑)(的)(界)(限)(,目)(前)(应)(该)(是)(一)(个)(较)(大)(的)(中)(级)(调)(整)(的)(来)(临)(,预)(计)(下)(周)(二)(在)(大)(量)(打)(新)(资)(金)(出)(来)(后)(会)(有)(一)(个)(弱)(反)(弹)(,此)(后)(会)(继)(续)(震)(荡)(格)(局)(,大)(牛)(市)(格)(局)(仍)(然)(未)(变)(。”  此)(前)(包)(括)(申)(万)(宏)(源)(证)(券)(、银)(河)(证)(券)(等)(均)(认)(为)(在)(经)(历)(周)(三)(四)(的)(下)(跌)(后)(将)(进)(入)(中)(期)(调)(整)(,同)(时)(认)(为)(并)(未)(有)(企)(稳)(迹)(象)(。而)(对)(于)(此)(次)(调)(整)(的)(周)(期)(,上)(述)(策)(略)(分)(析)(师)(表)(示)(:“近)(几)(年)(以)(来)(的)(上)(升)(通)(道)(已)(经)(被)(跌)(破)(,市)(场)(调)(整)(的)(空)(间)(和)(时)(间)(可)(能)(超)(出)(市)(场)(预)(期)(。”  与)(此)(同)(时)(,对)(于)(深)(度)(大)(跌)(的)(原)(因)(,该)(策)(略)(分)(析)(师)(表)(示)(:“根)(本)(上)(来)(讲)(是)(钱)(紧)(了)(。具)(体)(的)(表)(现)(包)(括)(巨)(量)(IPO申)(购)(资)(金)(冻)(结)(、季)(度)(末)(流)(动)(性)(差)(、银)(行)(半)(年)(度)(考)(核)(等)(。证)(监)(会)(对)(杠)(杆)(风)(险)(的)(控)(制)(也)(是)(此)(次)(下)(跌)(的)(原)(因)(之)(一)(。”  北)(京)(一)(位)(私)(募)(基)(金)(人)(士)(向)(21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(记)(者)(表)(达)(了)(他)(的)(无)(奈)(:“虽)(然)(我)(们)(仓)(位)(已)(经)(降)(低)(到)(了)(四)(成)(左)(右)(,但)(是)(仍)(然)(是)(惨)(不)(忍)(睹)(。”  年)(中)(钱)(紧)(  6月)(18日)(,是)(以)(巨)(无)(霸)(国)(泰)(君)(安)((601211.SH)为)(首)(的)(13只)(新)(股)(申)(购)(日)(,按)(照)(此)(前)(市)(场)(估)(计)(该)(日)(冻)(结)(申)(购)(资)(金)(量)(达)(到)(4万)(亿)(,其)(中)(,国)(泰)(君)(安)(融)(资)(总)(额)(达)(300亿)(元)(,是)(自)(2010年)(7月)(农)(业)(银)(行)(发)(行)(以)(来)(A股)(5年)(来)(最)(大)(规)(模)(的)(IPO,单)(个)(账)(户)(顶)(格)(申)(购)(国)(泰)(君)(安)(的)(资)(金)(近)(900万)(元)(。  上)(述)(策)(略)(分)(析)(师)(对)(此)(表)(示)(:“此)(前)(沪)(深)(两)(市)(成)(交)(额)(从)(3月)(以)(来)(不)(断)(扩)(大)(,曾)(突)(破)(日)(均)(2万)(亿)(大)(关)(,在)(6月)(初)(上)(证)(指)(数)(日)(交)(易)(额)(已)(经)(接)(近)(万)(亿)(,在)(新)(股)(抽)(水)(4万)(亿)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,必)(然)(受)(到)(影)(响)(。同)(时)(加)(上)(今)(年)(以)(来)(股)(东)(减)(持)(套)(现)(加)(剧)(。”  Wind资)(讯)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,截)(至)(6月)(17日)(,2015年)(以)(来)(已)(有)(1234家)(上)(市)(公)(司)(发)(布)(了)(重)(要)(股)(东)(或)(高)(管)(减)(持)(公)(告)(,减)(持)(股)(数)(350.31亿)(股)(,累)(计)(减)(持)(市)(值)(约)(4771.5亿)(元)(。这)(一)(数)(字)(远)(超)(过)(2014年)(全)(年)(的)(减)(持)(规)(模)(。分)(月)(份)(来)(看)(,2015年)(1月)(-6月)((截)(至)(6月)(17日)(),每)(月)(减)(持)(金)(额)(分)(别)(为)(440.66亿)(元)(、377.33亿)(元)(、647.15亿)(元)(、797.46亿)(元)(、1507.5亿)(元)(、1046.77亿)(元)(。  而)(在)(年)(中)(阶)(段)(,银)(行)(季)(末)(考)(核)(的)(来)(临)(也)(使)(得)(流)(动)(性)(阶)(段)(性)(趋)(紧)(。  一)(位)(重)(庆)(地)(区)(银)(行)(人)(士)(向)(21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(记)(者)(证)(实)(了)(年)(中)(考)(核)(:“虽)(然)(此)(前)(是)(说)(会)(淡)(化)(存)(款)(考)(核)(,但)(是)(现)(在)(年)(中)(考)(核)(和)(季)(末)(考)(核)(仍)(然)(是)(重)(点)(,我)(们)(目)(前)(都)(在)(找)(大)(户)(拉)(存)(款)(。”  钱)(紧)(的)(场)(景)(也)(出)(现)(在)(债)(券)(市)(场)(。  在)(华)(创)(证)(券)(债)(券)(分)(析)(师)(屈)(庆)(看)(来)(,如)(果)(部)(分)(MLF(中)(期)(结)(构)(便)(利)(,央)(行)(非)(常)(规)(工)(具)(之)(一)()不)(续)(作)(,意)(味)(着)(短)(期)(内)(银)(行)(要)(归)(还)(到)(期)(的)(MLF资)(金)(,将)(加)(大)(资)(金)(紧)(张)(程)(度)(。  “近)(期)(资)(金)(面)(可)(能)(继)(续)(收)(紧)(,而)(同)(时)(期)(供)(给)(压)(力)(巨)(大)(,需)(要)(警)(惕)(因)(为)(资)(金)(利)(率)(反)(弹)(导)(致)(的)(债)(券)(市)(场)(去)(杠)(杆)(压)(力)(,并)(导)(致)(曲)(线)(出)(现)(熊)(平)(的)(趋)(势)(。MLF到)(期)(部)(分)(未)(续)(作)(也)(可)(能)(表)(明)(央)(行)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(微)(调)(,降)(准)(概)(率)(将)(有)(所)(降)(低)(。”屈)(庆)(认)(为)(。  岌)(岌)(可)(危)(的)(融)(资)(盘)(  作)(为)(金)(库)(的)(银)(行)(资)(金)(紧)(张)(直)(接)(也)(影)(响)(到)(杠)(杆)(炒)(股)(的)(伞)(形)(信)(托)(、场)(外)(配)(资)(等)(。  上)(述)(北)(京)(私)(募)(基)(金)(人)(士)(向)(21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(记)(者)(证)(实)(:“目)(前)(,招)(商)(银)(行)(配)(资)(已)(经)(不)(放)(款)(了)(,浦)(发)(直)(接)(就)(停)(了)(,兴)(业)(银)(行)(本)(来)(周)(二)(放)(的)(,最)(开)(始)(说)(改)(周)(五)(,然)(后)(周)(五)(通)(知)(改)(下)(周)(三)(。目)(前)(能)(配)(到)(的)(也)(只)(配)(到)(1:1.5。在)(证)(监)(会)(控)(制)(杠)(杆)(风)(险)(的)(表)(态)(后)(,大)(家)(都)(降)(低)(了)(杠)(杆)(。”  而)(一)(周)(连)(续)(大)(跌)(也)(使)(得)(很)(多)(场)(外)(配)(资)(高)(杠)(杆)(的)(资)(金)(临)(近)(爆)(仓)(强)(平)(边)(缘)(。  上)(海)(一)(位)(私)(募)(人)(士)(向)(21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(记)(者)(表)(示)(:“据)(我)(所)(知)(道)(的)(情)(况)(,1:5杠)(杆)(的)(融)(资)(盘)(爆)(仓)(的)(在)(70%了)(,如)(果)(不)(想)(被)(强)(平)(就)(要)(追)(加)(30%保)(证)(金)(。伞)(形)(信)(托)(基)(本)(是)(1:3的)(杠)(杆)(,如)(果)(下)(周)(二)(仍)(然)(低)(迷)(的)(话)(,也)(会)(出)(现)(大)(面)(积)(爆)(仓)(强)(平)(了)(。”  上)(述)(北)(京)(私)(募)(人)(士)(也)(证)(实)(该)(观)(点)(:“一)(般)(合)(同)(里)(面)(那)(句)("乙)(方)(将)(强)(平)(通)(知)(发)(送)(至)(约)(定)(邮)(箱)(即)(视)(为)(通)(知)(送)(达)("就)(生)(效)(了)(,强)(平)(是)(很)(快)(的)(,电)(话)(问)(你)(追)(不)(追)(加)(保)(证)(金)(,不)(追)(就)(强)(平)(。强)(平)(一)(般)(都)(是)(13点)(直)(接)(挂)(跌)(停)(板)(强)(平)(,所)(以)(很)(多)(杠)(杆)(很)(高)(的)(票)(在)(下)(午)(整)(点)(的)(时)(候)(会)(有)(很)(明)(显)(的)(杀)(跌)(。我)(所)(知)(道)(的)(包)(括)(中)(融)(信)(托)(,五)(矿)(信)(托)(,新)(时)(代)(信)(托)(等)(都)(是)(13点)(平)(。”  宏)(观)(渐)(变)(:  货)(币)(政)(策)(转)(向)(财)(政)(政)(策)(  而)(资)(金)(面)(上)(更)(深)(层)(次)(的)(原)(因)(则)(被)(广)(泛)(认)(为)(是)(央)(行)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(延)(后)(。  从)(5月)(10日)(央)(行)(降)(息)(到)(现)(在)(一)(个)(月)(内)(,央)(行)(未)(出)(现)(降)(息)(或)(者)(降)(准)(行)(为)(,海)(通)(证)(券)(分)(析)(师)(姜)(超)(对)(此)(分)(析)(:“近)(期)(政)(策)(重)(心)(发)(生)(了)(明)(显)(的)(转)(向)(,正)(在)(从)(货)(币)(政)(策)(转)(向)(财)(政)(政)(策)(,体)(现)(在)(6月)(10日)(的)(常)(务)(会)(议)(内)(容)(中)(只)(字)(未)(提)(宽)(松)(货)(币)(政)(策)(,而)(通)(篇)(在)(强)(调)(积)(极)(财)(政)(政)(策)(。”  从)(2015年)(5月)(份)(开)(始)(,政)(府)(首)(先)(推)(出)(了)(1万)(亿)(地)(方)(债)(务)(置)(换)(,6月)(份)(财)(政)(部)(又)(推)(出)(了)(第)(二)(批)(1万)(亿)(债)(务)(置)(换)(计)(划)(,“这)(一)(次)(的)(目)(标)(明)(显)(是)(冲)(着)(稳)(增)(长)(来)(的)(。”姜)(超)(认)(为)(。“债)(务)(置)(换)(是)(稳)(增)(长)(的)(手)(段)(。而)(我)(们)(也)(观)(察)(到)(各)(地)(相)(继)(推)(出)(财)(政)(刺)(激)(计)(划)(,例)(如)(广)(东)(出)(台)(2293亿)(稳)(增)(长)(措)(施)(,其)(中)(863亿)(是)(新)(增)(财)(政)(资)(金)(,其)(来)(源)(就)(是)(债)(券)(置)(换)(、新)(增)(发)(行)(地)(方)(债)(等)(。”  6月)(19日)(晚)(间)(中)(国)(政)(府)(网)(公)(开)(资)(料)(显)(示)(,国)(务)(院)(在)(6月)(16日)(下)(发)(的)(文)(件)(《国)(务)(院)(关)(于)(印)(发)(推)(进)(财)(政)(资)(金)(统)(筹)(使)(用)(方)(案)(的)(通)(知)(》中)(表)(示)(:将)(加)(快)(地)(方)(政)(府)(置)(换)(债)(券)(发)(行)(进)(度)(。  姜)(超)(认)(为)(:“2万)(亿)(债)(务)(置)(换)(意)(味)(着)(积)(极)(财)(政)(得)(到)(了)(资)(金)(来)(落)(实)(,其)(经)(济)(效)(果)(也)(很)(有)(可)(能)(在)(2015年)(4季)(度)(以)(后)(逐)(渐)(体)(现)(。而)(如)(果)(积)(极)(财)(政)(政)(策)(短)(期)(有)(效)(,反)(过)(来)(也)(就)(意)(味)(着)(宽)(松)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(必)(要)(性)(下)(降)(,未)(来)(货)(币)(政)(策)(或)(进)(入)(观)(察)(期)(,宽)(松)(政)(策)(可)(能)(会)(短)(期)(延)(后)(。”  作)(者)(:周)(松)(清)(
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