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金学伟:时间是A股牛熊循环主宰者

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年05月21日 17:27:00
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(  均)(线)(的)(平)(移)(点)(和)(多)(重)(交)(汇)(点)(就)(是)(价)(值)(中)(枢)(所)(在)(,这)(是)(我)(们)(价)(值)(中)(枢)(理)(论)(的)(重)(要)(支)(柱)(。但)(在)(复)(杂)(的)(市)(场)(运)(行)(中)(,均)(线)(平)(移)(点)(和)(交)(汇)(点)(有)(时)(并)(非)(1个)(,而)(是)(有)(两)(三)(个)(;有)(时)(则)(相)(反)(,没)(有)(显)(著)(的)(、既)(有)(平)(移)(点)(又)(有)(交)(汇)(点)(支)(持)(的)(点)(供)(我)(们)(选)(择)(。遇)(到)(这)(些)(情)(况)(,我)(们)(就)(需)(要)(从)(其)(他)(角)(度)(,也)(是)(更)(重)(要)(的)(年)(CDP角)(度)(来)(考)(虑)(。
  CDP又)(名)(逆)(势)(交)(易)(系)(统)(,其)(一)(般)(的)(计)(算)(公)(式)(是)((收)(盘)(+最)(高)(+最)(低)()÷3。原)(本)(的)(设)(计)(思)(想)(是)(利)(用)(CDP系)(统)(,可)(计)(算)(出)(今)(天)(可)(能)(的)(支)(撑)(点)(和)(阻)(力)(点)(,用)(来)(做)(低)(买)(高)(卖)(的)(逆)(势)(交)(易)(。但)(在)(我)(看)(来)(,CDP的)(最)(大)(价)(值)(不)(在)(短)(线)(交)(易)(,而)(在)(它)(的)(计)(价)(功)(能)(。与)(K线)(相)(比)(,它)(有)(简)(洁)(、轮)(廓)(清)(晰)(、重)(点)(突)(出)(的)(优)(点)(。与)(收)(盘)(价)(相)(比)(,它)(又)(多)(了)(最)(高)(、最)(低)(这)(两)(个)(价)(格)(信)(息)(,因)(此)(更)(全)(面)(、更)(合)(理)(。所)(以)(,从)(见)(到)(CDP起)(,它)(就)(成)(了)(我)(最)(主)(要)(的)(计)(价)(工)(具)(。
  把)(年)(CDP纳)(入)(价)(值)(中)(枢)(考)(察)(,最)(大)(的)(好)(处)(是)(:当)(有)(几)(个)(均)(线)(平)(移)(点)(和)(交)(汇)(点)(可)(选)(时)(,我)(们)(就)(可)(用)(年)(CDP,来)(选)(取)(距)(它)(最)(近)(的)(一)(个)(点)(,作)(为)(价)(值)(中)(枢)(。
  比)(如)(,2001年)(至)(2004年)(,400天)(均)(线)(在)(1975点)(出)(现)(过)(一)(次)(明)(显)(平)(移)(,200天)(均)(线)(在)(1620点)(和)(1530点)(有)(两)(次)(明)(显)(平)(移)(,它)(们)(都)(有)(均)(线)(交)(汇)(点)(支)(持)(。但)(结)(合)(年)(CDP就)(可)(发)(现)(,1530点)(要)(比)(前)(两)(个)(更)(合)(适)(,因)(为)(2002年)(和)(2003年)(的)(年)(CDP分)(别)(在)(1481点)(和)(1483点)(,1530点)(是)(距)(它)(们)(最)(近)(的)(一)(个)(点)(。
  还)(有)(2010年)(,200天)(均)(线)(在)(3097点)(平)(移)(,100天)(、150天)(、200天)(3条)(均)(线)(交)(汇)(点)(在)(3093点)(。2011年)(,又)(有)(多)(条)(均)(线)(在)(2850点)(至)(2860点)(之)(间)(平)(移)(并)(交)(汇)(。但)(由)(于)(2008年)(到)(2010年)(的)(年)(CDP分)(别)(是)(3002点)(、2866点)(、2811点)(,所)(以)(,选)(2852点)(作)(为)(价)(值)(中)(枢)(更)(靠)(谱)(。
  而)(像)(1994年)(和)(1995年)(,200天)(均)(线)(在)(652点)(长)(时)(间)(平)(移)(,但)(最)(主)(要)(的)(均)(线)(交)(汇)(点)(出)(现)(在)(663点)(,时)(间)(是)(1996年)(2月)(。与)(此)(同)(时)(,1994年)(和)(1995年)(的)(年)(CDP分)(别)(在)(675点)(和)(668点)(。所)(以)(,我)(们)(就)(直)(接)(选)(取)(668点)(作)(为)(价)(值)(中)(枢)(。
  定)(位)(价)(值)(中)(枢)(,对)(波)(动)(空)(间)(的)(把)(握)(意)(义)(不)(大)(——虽)(然)(定)(位)(价)(值)(同)(样)(有)(助)(于)(对)(波)(动)(空)(间)(的)(把)(握)(,比)(如)(以)(3093点)(为)(价)(值)(中)(枢)(,我)(们)(就)(可)(测)(出)(3093÷1849×3093=5174点)(,但)(这)(毕)(竟)(是)(随)(机)(的)(,带)(有)(偶)(然)(性)(。定)(位)(价)(值)(中)(枢)(的)(主)(要)(目)(的)(在)(时)(间)(考)(察)(。因)(为)(价)(值)(就)(是)(时)(间)(+价)(位)(,哪)(个)(点)(位)(才)(是)(真)(正)(的)(价)(值)(中)(枢)(,需)(要)(时)(间)(验)(证)(;一)(个)(价)(值)(中)(枢)(是)(否)(构)(筑)(完)(成)(,只)(待)(合)(适)(的)(时)(间)(进)(入)(牛)(市)(,更)(需)(要)(时)(间)(来)(扮)(演)(重)(要)(角)(色)(。定)(位)(价)(值)(中)(枢)(的)(目)(的)(,就)(是)(考)(察)(该)(价)(值)(中)(枢)(是)(否)(构)(筑)(完)(毕)(,只)(待)(合)(适)(时)(机)(进)(入)(牛)(市)(。
  如)(何)(计)(算)(时)(间)(?按)(史)(泰)(米)(亚)(的)(TPO点)(核)(法)(,当)(一)(条)(K线)(从)(A点)(贯)(穿)(到)(B点)(,那)(么)(,A点)(到)(B点)(之)(间)(所)(有)(的)(价)(位)(都)(有)(了)(一)(个)(时)(间)(价)(位)((TPO)。举)(例)(说)(,今)(年)(11月)(上)(证)(指)(数)(最)(高)(3678点)(,最)(低)(3302点)(,以)(月)(做)(时)(间)(单)(位)(,那)(么)(,11月)(,3678点)(到)(3302点)(之)(间)(的)(每)(一)(个)(点)(都)(获)(得)(了)(一)(个)(时)(间)(价)(位)((一)(个)(TPO)。把)(每)(个)(月)(的)(TPO都)(靠)(左)(对)(齐)(,纵)(向)(标)(识)(在)(图)(上)(,我)(们)(就)(能)(看)(到)(:随)(着)(时)(间)(延)(长)(,不)(同)(价)(位)(获)(得)(的)(TPO数)(量)(是)(不)(一)(样)(的)(,少)(的)(仅)(一)(两)(个)(,多)(的)(有)(十)(几)(甚)(至)(二)(十)(几)(个)(。
  在)(我)(们)(不)(知)(道)(价)(值)(中)(枢)(所)(在)(时)(,确)(实)(要)(用)(TPO图)(来)(寻)(找)(价)(值)(中)(枢)(并)(计)(算)(TPO数)(量)(。但)(在)(已)(知)(价)(值)(中)(枢)(所)(在)(后)(,就)(不)(需)(要)(TPO图)(,省)(掉)(作)(图)(工)(夫)(,直)(接)(打)(开)(月)(K线)(图)(,移)(动)(光)(标)(,就)(能)(数)(出)(该)(价)(位)(已)(获)(得)(了)(几)(个)(TPO。
  比)(如)(,从)(1992年)(到)(1995年)(末)(,上)(证)(指)(数)(月)(K线)(共)(有)(16次)(穿)(越)(668点)(,那)(么)(,668这)(个)(价)(值)(中)(枢)(便)(获)(得)(16个)(TPO。1996年)(牛)(市)(开)(始)(,又)(有)(3条)(K线)(穿)(越)(668点)(。因)(此)(,668这)(个)(价)(值)(中)(枢)(,是)(用)(了)(16个)(TPO构)(筑)(完)(成)(,并)(用)(了)(19个)(TPO得)(到)(最)(终)(确)(认)(。
  再)(看)(1530点)(。从)(1993年)(上)(证)(指)(数)(首)(次)(穿)(越)(1530点)(,到)(2005年)(牛)(市)(启)(动)(前)(,它)(累)(计)(获)(得)(的)(TPO是)(19个)(。2005年)(牛)(市)(开)(始)(后)(,又)(有)(两)(次)(穿)(越)(1530点)(。因)(此)(1530这)(个)(价)(值)(中)(枢)(,是)(用)(了)(19个)(TPO构)(筑)(完)(成)(,并)(用)(了)(21个)(TPO得)(到)(最)(终)(确)(认)(。
  再)(看)(2852点)(。从)(2007年)(首)(次)(穿)(越)(2852点)(,到)(2014年)(的)(牛)(市)(之)(前)(,它)(累)(计)(获)(得)(的)(TPO是)(18个)(。然)(后)(,2014年)(12月)(和)(今)(年)(8月)(,又)(有)(两)(次)(穿)(越)(2852点)(。因)(此)(,2852点)(这)(个)(价)(值)(中)(枢)(是)(用)(了)(18个)(TPO构)(筑)(完)(成)(,并)(用)(了)(20个)(TPO得)(到)(最)(终)(确)(认)(。
  为)(什)(么)(时)(间)(能)(成)(为)(牛)(熊)(循)(环)(的)(主)(宰)(者)(?答)(案)(只)(有)(一)(个)(:股)(市)(是)(高)(效)(率)(的)(,经)(济)(是)(低)(效)(率)(的)(。高)(效)(率)(的)(股)(市)(常)(常)(会)(在)(一)(两)(年)(内)(吞)(噬)(掉)(未)(来)(很)(多)(年)(的)(增)(长)((中)(国)(股)(市)(尤)(甚)(),这)(种)(被)(吞)(噬)(的)(增)(长)(需)(要)(时)(间)(慢)(慢)(找)(回)(,使)(股)(市)(的)(长)(期)(升)(幅)(最)(终)(能)(与)(经)(济)(以)(及)(上)(市)(公)(司)(整)(体)(增)(长)(幅)(度)(相)(匹)(配)(。这)(才)(是)(市)(场)(的)(最)(本)(质)(规)(律)(,也)(是)(最)(不)(可)(变)(的)(因)(素)(之)(一)(。
  因)(此)(,不)(仅)(牛)(熊)(级)(循)(环)(,包)(括)(像)(1997至)(1999年)(这)(种)(非)(牛)(熊)(循)(环)(级)(的)(大)(级)(别)(整)(理)(,由)(于)(前)(期)(涨)(幅)(过)(大)(,也)(需)(要)(构)(筑)(好)(一)(个)(价)(值)(中)(枢)(后)(才)(进)(入)(下)(一)(波)(牛)(市)(——由)(于)(调)(整)(不)(充)(分)(,这)(个)(价)(值)(中)(枢)((1998年)(的)(年)(CDP值)(1204点)()至)(1047点)(行)(情)(启)(动)(前)(,累)(计)(获)(得)(的)(TPO为)(24个)(,是)(迄)(今)(获)(得)(TPO数)(量)(最)(多)(的)(一)(个)(。1998年)(底)(,我)(曾)(预)(言)(1999年)(上)(证)(指)(数)(将)(创)(历)(史)(新)(高)(,依)(据)(的)(就)(是)(这)(个)(价)(值)(中)(枢)(的)(构)(筑)(已)(达)(到)(“完)(全)(满)(足)(,只)(待)(时)(机)(成)(熟)(就)(启)(动)(”的)(条)(件)(。至)(于)(时)(机)(何)(时)(成)(熟)(,那)(就)(是)(其)(他)(方)(面)(,如)(形)(态)(、周)(期)(、宏)(观)(基)(本)(面)(分)(析)(的)(任)(务)(了)(。
  顺)(着)(这)(个)(规)(律)(,就)(可)(明)(白)(为)(什)(么)(我)(上)(周)(会)(说)(对)(牛)(市)(之)(后)(还)(是)(牛)(市)(的)(观)(点)(听)(过)(呵)(呵)(一)(笑)(。因)(为)(无)(论)(5178点)(是)(哪)(个)(级)(别)(的)(调)(整)(,哪)(怕)(仅)(仅)(是)(1997年)(1510点)(这)(样)(的)(调)(整)((这)(概)(率)(很)(大)(),客)(观)(上)(都)(需)(要)(构)(筑)(一)(个)(新)(的)(价)(值)(中)(枢)(。而)(3800点)(,作)(为)(可)(能)(的)(新)(价)(值)(中)(枢)(,迄)(今)(为)(止)(的)(TPO数)(量)(才)(区)(区)(8个)(。
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