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分析师高呼“财政加码刻不容缓”

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年05月23日 03:36:25
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(原)(标)(题)(:谨)(防)(经)(济)(地)(产)(化)(和)(产)(业)(空)(心)(化)(分)(析)(师)(高)(呼)(“财)(政)(加)(码)(刻)(不)(容)(缓)(”
在)(中)(国)(7月)(新)(增)(贷)(款)(中)(,代)(表)(住)(房)(贷)(款)(需)(求)(的)(新)(增)(居)(民)(中)(长)(期)(贷)(款)(占)(比)(水)(平)(创)(历)(史)(新)(高)(,而)(企)(业)(部)(门)(贷)(款)(则)(罕)(见)(负)(增)(长)(。分)(析)(师)(表)(示)(,这)(一)(数)(据)(表)(现)(应)(引)(起)(对)(经)(济)(地)(产)(化)(和)(产)(业)(空)(心)(化)(的)(警)(惕)(。
中)(国)(央)(行)(上)(周)(公)(布)(的)(金)(融)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,7月)(新)(增)(贷)(款)(4636亿)(元)(,创)(2014年)(7月)(以)(来)(新)(低)(。其)(中)(新)(增)(的)(居)(民)(中)(长)(期)(贷)(款)(为)(4773亿)(元)(,占)(比)(达)(102%。同)(时)(7月)(个)(人)(按)(揭)(贷)(款)(增)(幅)(高)(达)(54.6%。此)(外)(,7月)(,企)(业)(部)(门)(人)(民)(币)(贷)(款)(减)(少)(26亿)(元)(,为)(2007年)(以)(来)(首)(次)(出)(现)(负)(值)(。
中)(信)(证)(券)(研)(究)(部)(固)(定)(收)(益)(首)(席)(分)(析)(师)(明)(明)(在)(一)(份)(报)(告)(中)(表)(示)(,以)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(在)(GDP中)(的)(占)(比)(为)(代)(表)(变)(量)(,目)(前)(中)(国)(的)(这)(一)(指)(标)(水)(平)(已)(在)(不)(断)(接)(近)(90年)(代)(泡)(沫)(时)(期)(的)(日)(本)(。
地)(产)(增)(长)(远)(高)(于)(经)(济)(实)(体)(增)(长)(的)(结)(果)(便)(是)(经)(济)(地)(产)(化)(,而)(当)(日)(本)(央)(行)(意)(识)(到)(这)(一)(问)(题)(严)(重)(性)(时)(为)(时)(已)(晚)(,日)(本)(央)(行)(货)(币)(政)(策)(在)(1989年)(开)(始)(转)(向)(,而)(不)(断)(调)(高)(的)(利)(率)(使)(得)(房)(价)(最)(后)(的)(狂)(欢)(终)(止)(于)(1991年)(末)(,1991年)(地)(产)(泡)(沫)(破)(裂)(,房)(价)(一)(落)(千)(丈)(并)(持)(续)(下)(跌)(,日)(本)(经)(济)(增)(速)(和)(通)(胀)(率)(一)(蹶)(不)(振)(,进)(入)(“失)(去)(的)(十)(年)(”乃)(至)(“失)(去)(的)(二)(十)(年)(”。
日)(本)(陷)(入)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(的)(衰)(退)(中)(。家)(庭)(和)(企)(业)(的)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(急)(剧)(恶)(化)(,企)(业)(偿)(债)(压)(力)(猛)(增)(同)(时)(大)(量)(削)(减)(支)(出)(,而)(债)(务)(恶)(化)(以)(及)(泡)(沫)(破)(裂)(使)(得)(银)(行)(不)(良)(资)(产)(率)(攀)(升)(,银)(行)(惜)(贷)(行)(为)(明)(显)(信)(用)(收)(缩)(,加)(剧)(银)(行)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(恶)(化)(,经)(济)(陷)(入)(“债)(务)(—通)(缩)(”的)(恶)(性)(循)(环)(中)(。
反)(观)(中)(国)(目)(前)(的)(表)(现)(,报)(告)(称)(,无)(论)(是)(居)(民)(房)(贷)(情)(况)(还)(是)(地)(产)(投)(资)(在)(经)(济)(中)(的)(地)(位)(,都)(表)(明)(中)(国)(目)(前)(产)(业)(空)(心)(化)(和)(经)(济)(地)(产)(化)(的)(趋)(势)(不)(断)(加)(剧)(。按)(照)(日)(本)(的)(教)(训)(,若)(泡)(沫)(破)(裂)(,届)(时)(中)(国)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(或)(也)(将)(会)(面)(临)(重)(度)(恶)(化)(和)(大)(幅)(收)(缩)(的)(风)(险)(。并)(且)(与)(日)(本)(不)(同)(的)(是)(,中)(国)(还)(面)(临)(货)(币)(收)(缩)(的)(风)(险)(,这)(一)(差)(异)(源)(于)(两)(国)(汇)(率)(和)(资)(本)(流)(动)(情)(况)(的)(不)(同)(。
从)(日)(本)(当)(时)(的)(情)(况)(来)(看)(,明)(明)(称)(,在)(90年)(代)(泡)(沫)(期)(间)(,日)(元)(基)(本)(处)(于)(升)(值)(通)(道)(,日)(本)(国)(内)(面)(临)(的)(是)(资)(本)(流)(入)(的)(情)(境)(。然)(而)(人)(民)(币)(目)(前)(却)(是)(面)(临)(着)(持)(续)(的)(贬)(值)(压)(力)(和)(资)(本)(流)(出)(现)(状)(。
也)(就)(是)(说)(,若)(国)(内)(经)(济)(地)(产)(化)(和)(产)(业)(空)(心)(化)(持)(续)(加)(剧)(,国)(内)(实)(体)(经)(济)(需)(求)(不)(足)(,经)(济)(下)(行)(压)(力)(加)(大)(,在)(汇)(率)(贬)(值)(和)(资)(本)(流)(出)(压)(力)(下)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(空)(间)(本)(身)(有)(限)(,同)(时)(国)(内)(居)(民)(和)(企)(业)(部)(门)(也)(有)(动)(机)(将)(手)(中)(的)(人)(民)(币)(换)(成)(外)(汇)(,并)(进)(一)(步)(投)(资)(国)(外)(资)(产)(造)(成)(资)(本)(外)(流)(压)(力)(,从)(而)(引)(发)(货)(币)(收)(缩)(的)(可)(能)(。
这)(意)(味)(着)(,地)(产)(经)(济)(化)(和)(产)(业)(空)(心)(化)(对)(中)(国)(而)(言)(不)(仅)(有)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(收)(缩)(的)(问)(题)(,还)(有)(货)(币)(收)(缩)(的)(困)(境)(。而)(在)(这)(种)(情)(况)(下)(,央)(行)(更)(难)(采)(取)(“放)(水)(”的)(方)(式)(刺)(激)(经)(济)(。
不)(过)(报)(告)(也)(指)(出)(,与)(日)(本)(相)(比)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(整)(体)(韧)(性)(较)(强)(,财)(政)(刺)(激)(仍)(可)(期)(待)(,同)(时)(城)(镇)(化)(还)(有)(空)(间)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(无)(效)(下)(如)(何)(通)(过)(财)(政)(措)(施)(激)(发)(实)(体)(需)(求)(,引)(导)(私)(人)(部)(门)(实)(体)(投)(资)(扩)(大)(以)(吸)(收)(房)(产)(泡)(沫)(的)(结)(构)(性)(调)(控)(成)(为)(关)(键)(。
总)(体)(而)(言)(,明)(明)(认)(为)(,在)(地)(产)(杠)(杆)(高)(企)(,经)(济)(地)(产)(化)(和)(产)(业)(空)(心)(化)(趋)(势)(下)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(放)(水)(无)(效)(且)(会)(进)(一)(步)(加)(剧)(问)(题)(,财)(政)(政)(策)(亟)(需)(加)(码)(。
在)(汇)(率)(贬)(值)(和)(资)(本)(外)(流)(的)(压)(力)(之)(下)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(也)(将)(维)(持)(中)(性)(稳)(健)(,利)(率)(趋)(势)(性)(下)(行)(难)(以)(为)(继)(,汇)(率)(风)(险)(成)(为)(市)(场)(重)(要)(的)(制)(约)(条)(件)(。
另)(一)(方)(面)(,在)(政)(策)(组)(合)(上)(,“宽)(财)(政)(”要)(接)(棒)(“宽)(货)(币)(”发)(力)(,积)(极)(有)(力)(的)(财)(政)(政)(策)(是)(破)(解)(实)(体)(需)(求)(不)(足)(和)(流)(动)(性)(陷)(阱)(的)(唯)(一)(出)(路)(。且)(在)(当)(前)(城)(镇)(化)(空)(间)(和)(基)(建)(需)(求)(仍)(大)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,财)(政)(措)(施)(具)(备)(可)(行)(性)(和)(必)(要)(性)(,然)(而)(如)(何)(有)(效)(拉)(动)(需)(求)(、疏)(通)(从)(国)(企)(到)(私)(企)(的)(投)(资)(传)(导)(机)(制)(,发)(挥)(国)(企)(对)(私)(企)(投)(资)(的)(带)(动)(作)(用)(成)(为)(关)(键)(。
但)(可)(以)(肯)(定)(的)(是)(,在)(当)(前)(经)(济)(行)(至)(短)(期)(关)(口)(下)(,财)(政)(加)(码)(已)(刻)(不)(容)(缓)(。
(2016超)(级)(交)(易)(员)(百)(万)(大)(奖)(赛)(火)(热)(报)(名)(中)(!)返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
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