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【光大海外策略】港元汇率不会成为重要风险,详解港元制度的安全性

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年05月21日 08:44:09
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哪里有玩快三的网站平台直属招商最高㊖100返9♔诚招代理【微信QQ同步】860925559 腾讯分分彩,腾讯5分彩,腾讯10分彩,时时彩龙虎和,U米彩票代理,U米官网,U米平台注册,U米乐官网,U米娱乐官方网站。【光大海外策略】港元汇率不会成为重要风险,详解港元制度的安全性

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(  作)(者)(:光)(大)(海)(外)(陈)(治)(中)(、陈)(彦)(彤)(
  事)(件)(:
  近)(期)(港)(元)(利)(率)(大)(幅)(走)(弱)(,最)(低)(触)(及)(7.8516(3月)(30日)()。今)(日)(香)(港)(金)(管)(局)(副)(总)(裁)(李)(达)(志)(表)(示)(,金)(管)(局)(已)(为)(应)(对)(资)(本)(外)(流)(做)(好)(了)(准)(备)(。自)(港)(元)(触)(到)(弱)(方)(汇)(兑)(保)(证)(以)(来)(,金)(管)(局)(已)(分)(两)(次)(买)(入)(共)(32.58亿)(港)(元)(作)(为)(应)(对)(。
  评)(价)(:
  对)(于)(香)(港)(这)(一)(离)(岸)(市)(场)(而)(言)(,港)(元)(汇)(率)(和)(港)(股)(市)(场)(短)(期)(的)(资)(金)(流)(间)(有)(较)(强)(相)(关)(性)(:港)(元)(利)(率)(持)(续)(弱)(势)(,表)(明)(港)(股)(资)(金)(面)(短)(期)(内)(会)(继)(续)(承)(压)(;另)(一)(方)(面)(,近)(期)(中)(美)(之)(间)(的)(贸)(易)(冲)(突)(阴)(云)(未)(散)(,财)(报)(空)(窗)(期)(缺)(乏)(基)(本)(面)(利)(好)(支)(撑)(,投)(资)(者)(的)(情)(绪)(未)(能)(得)(到)(纾)(解)(。
  当)(前)(市)(场)(在)(流)(动)(性)(以)(及)(情)(绪)(面)(的)(压)(制)(下)(处)(于)(区)(间)(震)(荡)(格)(局)(中)(。但)(无)(论)(是)(“两)(会)(”还)(是)(本)(次)(博)(鳌)(论)(坛)(中)(,大)(量)(影)(响)(深)(远)(的)(长)(期)(利)(好)(在)(持)(续)(显)(现)(。我)(们)(再)(次)(重)(申)(,2018年)(内)(港)(股)(市)(场)(仍)(处)(于)(健)(康)(的)(业)(绩)(成)(长)(支)(持)(的)(估)(值)(复)(苏)(当)(中)(。基)(数)(抬)(升)(带)(来)(的)(业)(绩)(增)(速)(下)(滑)(,以)(及)(阶)(段)(性)(的)(短)(期)(流)(动)(性)(压)(力)(等)(因)(素)(并)(不)(能)(掩)(盖)(资)(产)(质)(量)(和)(回)(报)(水)(平)(继)(续)(回)(升)(,中)(资)(股)(在)(全)(球)(市)(场)(中)(战)(略)(低)(位)(不)(断)(上)(升)(的)(长)(期)(战)(略)(性)(趋)(势)(。2018年)(内)(各)(项)(中)(长)(期)(政)(策)(利)(好)(不)(容)(忽)(视)(。我)(们)(在)(此)(前)(的)(报)(告)(中)(强)(调)(2018年)(是)(政)(策)(大)(年)(,政)(策)(利)(好)(将)(助)(力)(市)(场)(走)(强)(。
  我)(们)(在)(3月)(14日)(的)(报)(告)(《港)(元)(汇)(率)(QA:本)(次)(走)(低)(仍)(是)(正)(常)(的)(短)(期)(波)(动)(》中)(对)(近)(期)(港)(元)(汇)(率)(走)(势)(背)(后)(的)(原)(因)(进)(行)(了)(较)(为)(系)(统)(地)(阐)(述)(。此)(外)(,我)(们)(之)(前)(的)(报)(告)(《货)(币)(战)(争)(太)(遥)(远)(,注)(意)(基)(本)(面)(下)(滑)(的)(风)(险)(》以)(及)(《如)(何)(正)(确)(解)(读)(“金)(管)(局)(注)(资)(”?》对)(于)(港)(元)(制)(度)(有)(一)(个)(较)(为)(详)(细)(的)(阐)(述)(。以)(下)(为)(三)(篇)(报)(告)(的)(详)(情)(:
  2018年)(3月)(14日)(:港)(元)(汇)(率)(QA:本)(次)(走)(低)(仍)(是)(正)(常)(的)(短)(期)(波)(动)(
  1、港)(元)(汇)(率)(近)(期)(走)(软)(的)(原)(因)(以)(及)(对)(于)(港)(股)(的)(影)(响)(
  近)(期)(港)(元)(汇)(率)(一)(度)(下)(触)(7.8439,距)(弱)(方)(兑)(换)(保)(证)(水)(平)(7.85仅)(有)(咫)(尺)(之)(遥)(,是)(自)(1984年)(以)(来)(的)(最)(低)(水)(平)(。针)(对)(投)(资)(者)(可)(能)(关)(心)(的)(问)(题)(,我)(们)(在)(接)(下)(来)(的)(报)(告)(中)(以)(QA的)(形)(式)(进)(行)(解)(释)(。
  1.1、Question1:港)(元)(汇)(率)(为)(何)(走)(弱)(?
  港)(元)(汇)(率)(近)(期)(大)(幅)(走)(弱)(的)(核)(心)(原)(因)(是)(港)(美)(利)(率)(间)(走)(势)(的)(背)(离)(和)(由)(此)(引)(发)(的)(套)(利)(交)(易)(。近)(期)(来)(,3月)(期)(的)(Libor和)(Hibor之)(间)(的)(利)(差)(走)(扩)(至)(100bps左)(右)(:
  1)Libor方)(面)(,由)(于)(美)(国)(近)(期)(亮)(眼)(的)(经)(济)(数)(据)(以)(及)(联)(储)(偏)(向)(鹰)(派)(的)(表)(态)(导)(致)(加)(息)(预)(期)(升)(温)((联)(邦)(基)(金)(利)(率)(期)(货)(隐)(含)(远)(期)(利)(率)(显)(示)(,3月)(加)(息)(概)(率)(目)(前)(已)(经)(达)(到)(了)(96.4%),近)(一)(个)(月)(持)(续)(上)(扬)(;
  
  2)Hibor方)(面)(,年)(底)(由)(于)(资)(金)(面)(趋)(紧)(导)(致)(的)(大)(幅)(上)(涨)(缓)(解)(后)(,近)(期)(由)(于)(香)(港)(本)(地)(资)(金)(面)(重)(归)(宽)(裕)(,Hibor并)(未)(跟)(随)(Libor走)(势)(,且)(不)(升)(反)(降)(,由)(此)(导)(致)(利)(差)(扩)(大)(。实)(际)(上)(,虽)(然)(美)(联)(储)(正)(处)(于)(加)(息)(通)(道)(,但)(欧)(日)(央)(行)(政)(策)(依)(旧)(宽)(松)(,因)(而)(香)(港)(市)(场)(当)(前)(尚)(有)(较)(高)(的)(基)(础)(货)(币)(结)(余)(,这)(是)(充)(裕)(资)(金)(的)(源)(头)(。投)(资)(者)(通)(过)(卖)(出)(港)(币)(买)(入)(收)(益)(更)(高)(的)(美)(元)(以)(获)(利)(,港)(币)(汇)(率)(因)(此)(而)(受)(到)(压)(制)(。
  1.2、Question2:需)(要)(担)(心)(港)(元)(触)(及)(7.85的)(弱)(方)(兑)(换)(保)(证)(水)(平)(吗)(?
  当)(前)(港)(元)(汇)(率)(为)(1984年)(以)(来)(的)(最)(低)(水)(平)(,因)(而)(市)(场)(对)(于)(港)(元)(汇)(率)(的)(担)(忧)(情)(绪)(有)(所)(升)(温)(,然)(而)(我)(们)(认)(为)(不)(需)(要)(对)(汇)(率)(波)(动)(过)(于)(担)(心)(。
  1)香)(港)(当)(局)(有)(充)(足)(的)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(来)(应)(对)(问)(题)(。
  香)(港)(2月)(底)(的)(官)(方)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(资)(产)(为)(4435亿)(美)(元)(,继)(续)(创)(出)(历)(史)(新)(高)(。金)(管)(局)(拥)(有)(足)(够)(的)(港)(币)(来)(维)(持)(联)(系)(汇)(率)(制)(度)(,对)(市)(场)(进)(行)(干)(预)(。
  
  2)3月)(加)(息)(后)(,Hibor将)(跟)(随)(港)(元)(基)(准)(上)(行)(,LiborHibor之)(间)(利)(差)(会)(缩)(窄)(。
  拉)(长)(时)(间)(看)(,Libor可)(能)(会)(在)(加)(息)(前)(先)(行)(走)(高)(而)(带)(来)(利)(差)(扩)(大)((Libor和)(Hibor的)(走)(势)(出)(现)(背)(离)()。而)(随)(着)(美)(元)(3月)(加)(息)(靴)(子)(落)(地)(,Hibor受)(上)(行)(压)(力)(将)(跟)(随)(Libor走)(高)((加)(息)(周)(期)(中)(),两)(者)(间)(的)(利)(差)(将)(会)(缩)(窄)(。港)(美)(利)(差)(缩)(窄)(给)(汇)(率)(的)(压)(力)(将)(有)(所)(减)(弱)(。
  
  1.3、Question3:港)(元)(问)(题)(对)(中)(期)(市)(场)(是)(否)(有)(持)(续)(性)(的)(影)(响)(?
  港)(元)(汇)(率)(近)(期)(的)(大)(幅)(走)(弱)(对)(港)(股)(更)(多)(的)(是)(短)(期)(流)(动)(性)(的)(扰)(动)(,并)(不)(会)(影)(响)(市)(场)(的)(中)(长)(期)(走)(势)(。
  1、短)(期)(港)(股)(可)(能)(承)(压)(的)(主)(要)(来)(源)(是)(套)(息)(交)(易)((CarryTrade,借)(日)(元)(买)(港)(股)(),由)(于)(Hibor和)(港)(汇)(双)(双)(走)(低)(,套)(息)(交)(易)(投)(资)(者)(加)(速)(平)(仓)(的)(行)(为)(可)(能)(会)(对)(市)(场)(造)(成)(一)(定)(扰)(动)((3月)(5日)(港)(股)(大)(跌)(,CarryTrade是)(主)(要)(影)(响)(因)(素)(之)(一)()。
  
  2、下)(一)(步)(,市)(场)(需)(要)(关)(注)(的)(是)(,金)(管)(局)(若)(采)(取)(干)(预)(措)(施)((买)(入)(港)(币)(卖)(出)(美)(元)()对)(流)(动)(性)(可)(能)(产)(生)(的)(不)(利)(影)(响)(。当)(前)(港)(元)(汇)(率)(非)(常)(接)(近)(弱)(方)(兑)(换)(保)(证)(水)(平)(,为)(了)(维)(持)(汇)(率)(稳)(定)(,在)(Libor确)(定)(性)(走)(高)(的)(当)(下)((基)(于)(联)(储)(早)(前)(的)(政)(策)(指)(引)(,美)(联)(储)(今)(年)(预)(计)(至)(少)(会)(有)(3次)(加)(息)(),金)(管)(局)(的)(干)(预)(行)(动)(可)(能)(对)(本)(港)(的)(资)(金)(面)(带)(来)(更)(大)(的)(压)(力)(,市)(场)(有)(可)(能)(会)(出)(现)(17年)(末)(时)(由)(于)(资)(金)(面)(趋)(紧)(而)(出)(现)(调)(整)(的)(情)(况)(。
  3、和)(汇)(率)(问)(题)(相)(比)(,当)(前)(影)(响)(港)(股)(市)(场)(中)(短)(期)(走)(势)(更)(为)(重)(要)(的)(因)(素)(是)(美)(股)(走)(势)(以)(及)(投)(资)(者)(的)(风)(险)(偏)(好)(情)(况)(。
  近)(期)(美)(国)(10年)(国)(债)(收)(益)(率)(上)(行)((当)(前)(投)(资)(者)(对)(于)(联)(储)(未)(来)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(尚)(处)(于)(适)(应)(过)(程)(中)()对)(于)(美)(股)(以)(及)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(的)(影)(响)(值)(得)(关)(注)(。10年)(期)(收)(益)(率)(的)(快)(速)(走)(高)(对)(尚)(处)(于)(财)(报)(空)(窗)(期)(的)(美)(股)(压)(力)(较)(大)(;对)(于)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(而)(言)(,部)(分)(国)(际)(投)(资)(者)(由)(于)(担)(心)(欧)(美)(股)(市)(震)(荡)(加)(剧)(而)(调)(整)(仓)(位)(,可)(能)(会)(部)(分)(撤)(离)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(的)(投)(资)(。虽)(然)(当)(前)(投)(资)(者)(的)(情)(绪)(已)(有)(所)(缓)(解)((VIX指)(数)(从)(2月)(初)(的)(高)(点)(下)(降)(),但)(远)(不)(及)(1月)(时)(的)(乐)(观)(情)(绪)(。往)(前)(看)(,联)(储)(的)(议)(息)(会)(议)((3月)(20-21日)()、特)(朗)(普)(的)(贸)(易)(政)(策)(等)(因)(素)(若)(出)(现)(超)(预)(期)(的)(部)(分)(,依)(然)(可)(能)(会)(对)(投)(资)(者)(的)(情)(绪)(产)(生)(较)(大)(影)(响)(。
  正)(如)(我)(们)(一)(直)(强)(调)(,对)(市)(场)(中)(长)(期)(走)(势)(的)(判)(断)(应)(回)(归)(基)(本)(面)(。我)(们)(在)(年)(度)(策)(略)(报)(告)(《踏)(入)(估)(值)(扩)(张)(新)(阶)(段)(》中)(的)(测)(算)(显)(示)(,港)(股)(主)(板)(17年)(报)(增)(速)(有)(望)(达)(到)(35%,是)(自)(11年)(以)(来)(的)(最)(高)(水)(平)(,此)(后)(估)(值)(将)(得)(到)(极)(大)(消)(化)(。此)(外)(港)(股)(的)(估)(值)(水)(平)(在)(全)(球)(横)(向)(对)(比)(中)(,依)(然)(具)(有)(突)(出)(优)(势)(。
  
  1.4、风)(险)(提)(示)(:
  近)(期)(值)(得)(关)(注)(的)(风)(险)(点)(有)(:1、美)(国)(市)(场)(若)(持)(续)(调)(整)(,或)(对)(港)(股)(市)(场)(带)(来)(较)(长)(时)(间)(的)(压)(力)(;2、特)(朗)(普)(关)(税)(政)(策)(以)(及)(白)(宫)(人)(事)(变)(动)(可)(能)(对)(投)(资)(者)(情)(绪)(产)(生)(的)(影)(响)(。
  货)(币)(战)(争)(太)(遥)(远)(,注)(意)(基)(本)(面)(下)(滑)(的)(风)(险)(
  1、货)(币)(战)(争)(太)(遥)(远)(,勿)(过)(度)(解)(读)(近)(期)(各)(央)(行)(动)(作)(
  过)(去)(一)(周)(,美)(联)(储)(和)(日)(本)(央)(行)(先)(后)(举)(行)(了)(货)(币)(政)(策)(会)(议)(,然)(而)(结)(果)(却)(迥)(然)(不)(同)(。其)(中)(:美)(联)(储)(在)(25-26日)(的)(议)(息)(会)(议)(后)(,宣)(布)(维)(持)(当)(前)(利)(率)(水)(平)(不)(变)(,与)(市)(场)(此)(前)(预)(期)(一)(致)(。同)(时)(,市)(场)(也)(基)(于)(近)(期)(经)(济)(数)(据)(及)(委)(员)(表)(态)(,成)(功)(预)(期)(了)(委)(员)(会)(在)(会)(后)(声)(明)(中)(的)(鸽)(派)(措)(辞)(。
  但)(日)(本)(央)(行)(却)(在)(29日)(的)(议)(息)(会)(议)(中)(做)(出)(了)(超)(出)(市)(场)(预)(期)(的)(决)(定)(:自)(2月)(16日)(起)(对)(银)(行)(超)(额)(准)(备)(金)(账)(户)(降)(息)(至)(-0.1%(非)(超)(额)(准)(备)(金)(仍)(实)(施)(零)(利)(率)(或)(正)(利)(率)(),同)(时)(维)(持)(基)(础)(货)(币)(年)(增)(幅)(80万)(亿)(日)(元)(的)((QQE)规)(模)(不)(变)(。市)(场)(此)(前)(已)(经)(注)(意)(到)(了)(BOJ的)(QE空)(间)(日)(渐)(窘)(迫)(,但)(却)(未)(能)(预)(期)(到)(BOJ也)(会)(决)(然)(加)(入)(负)(利)(率)(的)(阵)(营)(,尤)(其)(是)(在)(行)(长)(黑)(田)(东)(彦)(仅)(在)(一)(周)(前)(还)(表)(示)(BOJ不)(会)(采)(取)(负)(利)(率)(政)(策)(的)(情)(况)(下)(。
  新)(年)(以)(来)(,全)(球)(市)(场)(人)(士)((不)(乏)(知)(名)(者)()鼓)(吹)((或)(者)(说)(“倡)(导)(”)联)(储)(应)(重)(新)(考)(虑)(其)(加)(息)(进)(程)(的)(声)(音)(不)(绝)(于)(耳)(。笃)(信)(联)(储)(会)(虚)(晃)(一)(枪)(转)(而)(祭)(出)(QE4者)(有)(之)(,声)(称)(各)(国)(央)(行)(联)(合)(起)(来)(抵)(制)(美)(元)(升)(值)(者)(亦)(有)(之)(。在)(这)(种)(背)(景)(下)(,一)(些)(投)(资)(者)(不)(免)(为)(上)(周)(美)(日)(央)(行)(的)(行)(动)(赋)(予)(了)(更)(多)(感)(情)(色)(彩)(。
  在)(他)(们)(眼)(中)(,美)(联)(储)(符)(合)(预)(期)(的)(行)(动)(,大)(概)(就)(意)(味)(着)(一)(种)(因)(尽)(在)(掌)(握)(而)(按)(部)(就)(班)(式)(的)(从)(容)(;而)(相)(比)(之)(下)(,日)(本)(央)(行)(的)(超)(预)(期)(行)(为)(,就)(似)(乎)(带)(着)(更)(多)(背)(水)(一)(战)(式)(的)(悲)(愤)(和)(无)(奈)(了)(。从)(这)(种)(思)(路)(出)(发)(,有)(一)(些)(投)(资)(者)(进)(一)(步)(期)(待)(着)(全)(球)(其)(他)(央)(行)(还)(将)(在)(经)(济)(疲)(软)(的)(压)(力)(下)(不)(得)(不)(在)(超)(宽)(松)(货)(币)(的)(路)(上)(走)(得)(更)(远)(,并)(且)(可)(以)(通)(过)(采)(取)(竞)(争)(性)(贬)(值)(的)(策)(略)(向)(外)(转)(移)(压)(力)(。
  
  但)(这)(样)(的)(预)(期)(可)(能)(并)(不)(太)(符)(合)(当)(前)(的)(现)(实)(。后)(金)(融)(危)(机)(时)(代)(,各)(国)(货)(币)(当)(局)(相)(继)(走)(上)(超)(宽)(松)(货)(币)(政)(策)(道)(路)(的)(初)(心)(可)(能)(并)(非)(寄)(望)(用)(货)(币)(解)(决)(一)(切)(问)(题)(。至)(少)(在)(早)(期)(的)(重)(建)(阶)(段)(中)(,货)(币)(与)(财)(政)(政)(策)(间)(的)(配)(合)(依)(然)(占)(据)(十)(分)(重)(要)(的)(比)(例)(。然)(而)(,由)(于)(全)(球)(经)(济)(整)(体)(减)(速)(的)(趋)(势)(难)(改)(,经)(济)(疲)(弱)(国)(家)(的)(财)(政)(政)(策)(先)(后)(达)(限)(,继)(续)(扩)(容)(货)(币)(政)(策)(成)(为)(各)(国)(政)(府)(的)(无)(奈)(选)(择)(,并)(最)(终)(达)(到)(近)(乎)(竞)(争)(性)(贬)(值)(的)(程)(度)(。
  在)(美)(元)(已)(经)(启)(动)(升)(值)(进)(程)(之)(后)(,资)(产)(流)(失)(压)(力)(对)(各)(国)(经)(济)(构)(成)(新)(的)(挑)(战)(。囚)(徒)(困)(境)(的)(简)(单)(原)(理)(决)(定)(了)(,竞)(争)(性)(贬)(值)(的)(措)(施)(能)(够)(在)(各)(国)(均)(面)(临)(相)(当)(资)(本)(流)(失)(压)(力)(的)(情)(况)(下)(几)(乎)(无)(法)(见)(效)(——本)(国)(经)(济)(将)(无)(法)(承)(受)(资)(产)(流)(失)(的)(风)(险)(。因)(此)(,在)(这)(个)(过)(程)(中)(,各)(国)(货)(币)(当)(局)(需)(要)(十)(分)(谨)(慎)(地)(在)(货)(币)(政)(策)(效)(果)(和)(资)(产)(流)(失)(风)(险)(间)(进)(行)(刀)(锋)(上)(的)(舞)(蹈)(,而)(财)(政)(边)(界)(对)(政)(策)(空)(间)(的)(限)(制)(始)(终)(是)(一)(个)(值)(得)(重)(视)(的)(安)(全)(线)(。
  对)(短)(期)(的)(市)(场)(走)(势)(而)(言)(,一)(个)(更)(需)(要)(明)(确)(的)(事)(实)(则)(是)(:这)(些)(还)(都)(太)(远)(。日)(本)(股)(市)(在)(BOJ发)(布)(意)(外)(消)(息)(以)(后)(的)(走)(势)(已)(经)(表)(明)(,本)(币)(贬)(值)(对)(资)(产)(泡)(沫)(的)(伤)(害)(可)(能)(高)(于)(货)(币)(注)(水)(对)(泡)(沫)(的)(促)(进)(效)(果)(。在)(资)(产)(流)(失)(压)(力)(稳)(定)(以)(前)(,在)(岸)(资)(本)(市)(场)(的)(风)(险)(偏)(好)(是)(无)(法)(有)(效)(回)(升)(的)(。
  
  2、港)(汇)(大)(体)(企)(稳)(,但)(年)(报)(业)(绩)(分)(化)(将)(带)(来)(新)(的)(压)(力)(
  过)(去)(一)(周)(,港)(元)(汇)(率)(成)(功)(企)(稳)(在)(7.80以)(下)(的)(水)(平)(,并)(支)(持)(港)(股)(市)(场)(顶)(住)(了)(A股)(市)(场)(深)(幅)(调)(整)(的)(压)(力)(。
  
  
  同)(时)(,港)(股)(通)(自)(新)(年)(以)(来)(一)(直)(保)(持)(资)(金)(净)(流)(入)(,亦)(显)(示)(内)(地)(投)(资)(者)(对)(港)(元)(的)(类)(美)(元)(属)(性)(及)(港)(股)(市)(场)(的)(投)(资)(价)(值)(认)(可)(度)(上)(升)(。我)(们)(在)(前)(期)(各)(报)(告)(中)(已)(经)(多)(置)(笔)(墨)(论)(证)(香)(港)(虽)(然)(在)(短)(期)(内)(由)(于)(利)(差)(因)(素)(面)(临)(资)(本)(流)(失)(压)(力)(,但)(距)(离)(流)(动)(性)(风)(险)(以)(及)(汇)(率)(危)(机)(还)(有)(相)(当)(距)(离)(。目)(前)(看)(来)(,市)(场)(对)(资)(金)(流)(失)(的)(恐)(慌)(情)(绪)(已)(经)(大)(体)(平)(复)(,但)(正)(如)(前)(文)(所)(述)(,一)(些)(对)(于)(风)(险)(偏)(好)(抬)(头)(,以)(及)(对)(资)(本)(泛)(滥)(的)(过)(度)(期)(待)(却)(在)(抬)(头)(。
  距)(离)(农)(历)(春)(节)(仅)(一)(周)(时)(间)(,市)(场)(情)(绪)(已)(经)(略)(有)(倦)(怠)(。而)(翻)(过)(农)(历)(春)(节)(后)(,年)(报)(业)(绩)((预)(告)(/快)(报)()将)(更)(多)(呈)(现)(,基)(本)(面)(将)(成)(为)(新)(的)(调)(整)(压)(力)(源)(头)(。基)(于)(数)(据)(统)(计)(,我)(们)(发)(现)(多)(数)(行)(业)(都)(面)(临)(业)(绩)(下)(滑)(导)(致)(的)(估)(值)(无)(效)(扩)(张)(的)(风)(险)(,而)(考)(虑)(板)(块)(内)(的)(业)(绩)(分)(化)(,个)(股)(层)(面)(的)(风)(险)(则)(进)(一)(步)(增)(加)(。
  
  因)(此)(,尽)(管)(市)(场)(的)(资)(金)(面)(恐)(慌)(情)(绪)(大)(体)(缓)(解)(,我)(们)(仍)(然)(对)(市)(场)(前)(景)(持)(谨)(慎)(预)(期)(,并)(建)(议)(对)(后)(续)(调)(整)(风)(险)(继)(续)(保)(持)(防)(御)(态)(势)(,维)(持)(低)(仓)(位)(策)(略)(,并)(检)(视)(个)(股)(,回)(避)(年)(报)(业)(绩)(风)(险)(较)(高)(的)(品)(种)(。
  2015:如)(何)(正)(确)(解)(读)(“金)(管)(局)(注)(资)(”?
  1、对)(本)(轮)(资)(金)(流)(入)(规)(模)(及)(合)(理)(度)(量)(标)(准)(的)(解)(析)(
  尽)(管)(港)(股)(市)(场)(表)(现)(低)(迷)(,且)(本)(地)(经)(济)(亦)(面)(临)(诸)(多)(挑)(战)(,但)(港)(元)(汇)(率)(受)(影)(响)(程)(度)(却)(相)(对)(有)(限)(。更)(值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,自)(8月)(中)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(大)(幅)(波)(动)(以)(来)(,港)(元)(汇)(率)(更)(少)(见)(地)(和)(港)(股)(走)(势)(出)(现)(背)(离)(。而)(从)(8月)(底)(以)(来)(,港)(元)(汇)(率)(就)(基)(本)(保)(持)(在)(强)(方)(兑)(换)(保)(证)(水)(平)(上)(,显)(示)(资)(金)(流)(入)(一)(直)(在)(持)(续)(。为)(平)(抑)(利)(率)(压)(力)(,香)(港)(金)(管)(局)(8月)(以)(来)(已)(经)(先)(后)(执)(行)(18次)(注)(资)(,累)(积)(向)(市)(场)(注)(入)(1,144.7亿)(港)(元)((截)(至)(10月)(19日)(日)(间)(收)(盘)()。
  
  金)(管)(局)(本)(轮)(注)(资)(的)(累)(积)(规)(模)(不)(仅)(远)(远)(超)(过)(今)(年)(2季)(度)(内)(资)(加)(速)(入)(港)(期)(间)(,也)(超)(过)(了)(QE3期)(间)((2012年)(10-12月)(),仅)(次)(于)(08-09年)(资)(金)(潮)(期)(间)(的)(水)(平)((详)(见)(表)(2及)(图)(1)。而)(在)(这)(一)(波)(注)(资)(的)(推)(动)(下)(,金)(管)(局)(外)(汇)(基)(金)(银)(行)(体)(系)(总)(结)(余)(也)(创)(下)(了)(历)(史)(新)(高)(水)(平)(——截)(至)(10月)(15日)(,总)(结)(余)(规)(模)(达)(到)(3,815.03亿)(港)(元)(,而)(该)(数)(据)(的)(前)(期)(历)(史)(高)(点)(记)(录)(为)(2009年)(11月)(24日)(的)(3,199.57亿)(港)(元)((详)(见)(图)(2)。
  不)(过)(,值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,相)(对)(总)(结)(余)(,港)(元)(货)(币)(基)(础)(规)(模)(的)(变)(化)(则)(没)(有)(那)(么)(显)(目)((详)(见)(图)(3)。如)(图)(所)(示)(,货)(币)(基)(础)(的)(历)(次)(快)(速)(增)(长)(均)(由)(总)(结)(余)(增)(长)(推)(动)((一)(般)(发)(生)(在)(美)(元)(各)(轮)(QE的)(前)(后)(),但)(总)(结)(余)(规)(模)(回)(落)(对)(货)(币)(基)(础)(规)(模)(的)(影)(响)(则)(比)(较)(微)(弱)(。即)(使)(在)(2011年)(等)(港)(元)(汇)(率)(较)(弱)(的)(阶)(段)(,货)(币)(基)(础)(规)(模)(的)(回)(落)(幅)(度)(也)(非)(常)(有)(限)(。总)(体)(而)(言)(,近)(期)(资)(金)(流)(入)(对)(港)(元)(货)(币)(基)(础)(规)(模)(的)(影)(响)(,并)(不)(如)(总)(结)(余)(数)(据)(所)(表)(现)(出)(来)(的)(那)(么)(令)(人)(兴)(奋)(。
  
  
  那)(么)(,应)(当)(如)(何)(正)(确)(理)(解)(总)(结)(余)(规)(模)(增)(长)(的)(含)(义)(,并)(正)(确)(评)(估)(近)(期)(资)(金)(流)(的)(实)(际)(规)(模)(,以)(及)(对)(市)(场)(资)(金)(面)(的)(指)(示)(作)(用)(呢)(?我)(们)(不)(妨)(从)(全)(面)(理)(解)(香)(港)(的)(货)(币)(制)(度)(以)(及)(相)(应)(调)(控)(体)(质)(开)(始)(。
  不)(同)(于)(总)(结)(余)((AggregateBalance)的)(一)(般)(定)(义)(,在)(香)(港)(的)(货)(币)(制)(度)(下)(,总)(结)(余)(是)(指)(各)(银)(行)((及)(持)(牌)(机)(构)()为)(结)(算)(银)(行)(同)(业)(的)(收)(支)(及)(银)(行)(与)(金)(管)(局)(之)(间)(的)(收)(支)(而)(在)(金)(管)(局)(开)(设)(的)(结)(算)(户)(口)(结)(余)(的)(总)(额)(。总)(结)(余)(和)(负)(债)(证)(明)(、政)(府)(发)(行)(的)(流)(通)(纸)(币)(和)(硬)(币)(、未)(偿)(还)(的)(外)(汇)(基)(金)(票)(据)(一)(起)(构)(成)(了)(港)(元)(的)(货)(币)(基)(础)(。
  其)(中)(:
  1)负)(债)(证)(明)(与)(政)(府)(发)(行)(的)(流)(通)(纸)(币)(和)(硬)(币)(:负)(债)(证)(明)(是)(外)(汇)(基)(金)(向)(3家)(发)(钞)(行)((汇)(丰)(、渣)(打)(及)(中)(银)(香)(港)()发)(出)(的)(证)(明)(书)(,为)(其)(发)(行)(的)(银)(行)(纸)(币)(提)(供)(支)(持)(。发)(钞)(行)(向)(外)(汇)(基)(金)(存)(入)(美)(元)(,换)(取)(负)(债)(证)(明)(,从)(而)(可)(以)(发)(行)(对)(应)(数)(额)((以)(7.8港)(币)(/美)(元)(折)(算)()的)(港)(元)(现)(钞)(。负)(债)(证)(明)(保)(证)(了)(所)(有)(港)(元)(现)(钞)(均)(由)(足)(额)(美)(元)(支)(持)(。在)(必)(要)(时)(,金)(管)(局)(可)(以)(通)(过)((用)(美)(元)()赎)(回)(负)(债)(证)(明)(书)(,从)(而)(实)(现)(缩)(减)(港)(元)(现)(钞)(规)(模)(。但)(1996年)(以)(后)(,金)(管)(局)(已)(经)(将)(调)(控)((货)(币)(基)(础)(规)(模)(的)()重)(点)(从)(负)(债)(证)(明)(转)(向)(总)(结)(余)(。
  目)(前)(,发)(钞)(行)(仅)(发)(行)(20元)(及)(以)(上)(的)(纸)(币)(,而)(10元)(及)(以)(下)(的)(纸)(币)(和)(硬)(币)(则)(由)(政)(府)(发)(行)(。金)(管)(局)(和)(政)(府)(发)(行)(货)(币)(的)(代)(理)(银)(行)(间)(的)(结)(算)(调)(控)(方)(式)(同)(负)(债)(证)(明)(。
  
  2)总)(结)(余)(和)(未)(偿)(付)(外)(汇)(基)(金)(票)(据)(:由)(于)(前)(述)(两)(项)(货)(币)(基)(础)(项)(目)(是)(针)(对)(港)(元)(现)(钞)(而)(言)(,因)(此)(外)(汇)(基)(金)(票)(据)(和)(总)(结)(余)(才)(是)(港)(元)(货)(币)(基)(础)(的)(主)(要)(组)(成)(部)(分)((详)(见)(图)(2)。
  目)(前)(,金)(管)(局)(主)(要)(是)(通)(过)(向)(商)(业)(银)(行)(购)(买)(美)(元)(和)(发)(行)(外)(汇)(基)(金)(票)(据)(来)(调)(节)(港)(元)(的)(货)(币)(基)(础)(规)(模)(。其)(中)(,我)(们)(俗)(称)(的)(“注)(资)(”,是)(指)(金)(管)(局)(在)(必)(要)(时)((港)(元)(短)(缺)(,汇)(率)(触)(及)(强)(方)(兑)(换)(保)(证)(水)(平)(时)(),向)(商)(业)(银)(行)(“购)(买)(”美)(元)(。转)(换)(后)(的)(港)(币)(将)(计)(入)(持)(牌)(银)(行)(的)(结)(算)(户)(口)(,从)(而)(增)(加)(总)(结)(余)(规)(模)(,并)(扩)(大)(货)(币)(基)(础)(规)(模)(。
  外)(汇)(基)(金)(票)(据)(包)(括)(1年)(内)(的)(票)(据)((Bills),和)(1年)(以)(上)(的)(债)(券)((Notes),是)(货)(币)(基)(础)(的)(最)(主)(要)(组)(成)(部)(分)((占)(比)(超)(50%)。作)(为)(港)(元)(货)(币)(基)(础)(的)(最)(大)(蓄)(水)(池)(,金)(管)(局)(会)(通)(过)(控)(制)(发)(行)(节)(奏)(和)(直)(接)(发)(行)(/赎)(回)(的)(方)(式)(调)(控)(外)(汇)(基)(金)(票)(据)(的)(规)(模)(,从)(而)(实)(现)(削)(减)(货)(币)(基)(础)(规)(模)(的)(目)(标)(。
  由)(于)(总)(结)(余)(是)(无)(息)(资)(产)(,因)(此)(金)(管)(局)(也)(会)(在)(总)(结)(余)(规)(模)(持)(续)(增)(长)(以)(后)(,通)(过)(用)(总)(结)(余)(购)(买)(增)(发)(的)(外)(汇)(基)(金)(票)(据)(的)(方)(式)(削)(减)(总)(结)(余)(规)(模)(。需)(要)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,由)(于)(资)(金)(从)(总)(结)(余)(转)(入)(“未)(偿)(付)(的)(外)(汇)(基)(金)(票)(据)(”,这)(种)(操)(作)(不)(会)(降)(低)(货)(币)(基)(础)(规)(模)(。
  另)(外)(,总)(结)(余)(规)(模)(对)(应)(香)(港)(银)(行)(间)(市)(场)(短)(期)(资)(金)(流)(量)(。在)(预)(计)(资)(金)(流)(将)(有)(大)(幅)(波)(动)((起)(落)()的)(情)(况)(下)(,金)(管)(局)(会)(保)(持)(较)(大)(规)(模)(的)(总)(结)(余)(以)(应)(对)(交)(付)(需)(要)(。直)(到)(预)(期)(资)(金)(流)(转)(为)(平)(缓)(后)(,金)(管)(局)(才)(会)(削)(减)(总)(结)(余)(规)(模)(。
  
  综)(上)(所)(述)(:
  1)根)(据)(香)(港)(货)(币)(发)(行)(制)(度)(,唯)(有)(金)(管)(局)(因)(应)(资)(金)(流)(动)(采)(取)(行)(动)(,才)(会)(令)(总)(结)(余)(出)(现)(变)(动)(。
  2)总)(结)(余)(由)(金)(管)(局)(直)(接)(控)(制)((自)(1996年)(起)(),并)(取)(代)(负)(债)(证)(明)(成)(为)(其)(主)(动)(调)(控)(货)(币)(基)(础)(规)(模)(的)(主)(要)(手)(段)(。
  3)金)(管)(局)(会)(在)(出)(现)(短)(期)(汇)(率)(压)(力)((即)(出)(现)(较)(强)(资)(金)(流)(入)()时)(采)(取)(注)(资)(操)(作)(,注)(资)(规)(模)(和)(同)(期)(流)(入)(资)(金)(规)(模)(大)(致)(对)(应)(。
  4)金)(管)(局)(主)(要)(通)(过)(控)(制)(发)(行)(节)(奏)(和)(直)(接)(赎)(回)(外)(汇)(基)(金)(票)(据)(的)(方)(式)(削)(减)(货)(币)(基)(础)(总)(规)(模)(。
  5)总)(结)(余)(规)(模)(对)(应)(香)(港)(银)(行)(间)(市)(场)(短)(期)(资)(金)(流)(量)(。金)(管)(局)(通)(过)(增)(发)(外)(汇)(基)(金)(票)(据)(的)(手)(段)(来)(削)(减)(总)(结)(余)(规)(模)(。但)(需)(要)(注)(意)(,资)(金)(由)(总)(结)(余)(转)(入)(外)(汇)(基)(金)(票)(据)(,货)(币)(基)(础)(总)(规)(模)(并)(没)(有)(减)(少)(。
  所)(以)(:
  1)以)(总)(结)(余)(的)(存)(量)(规)(模)(评)(估)(资)(金)(流)(的)(逻)(辑)(是)(错)(误)(的)(,“总)(结)(余)(创)(新)(高)(”的)(表)(述)(并)(无)(实)(际)(意)(义)(。正)(确)(评)(估)(资)(金)(流)(规)(模)(的)(指)(标)(仍)(是)(累)(积)(注)(资)(规)(模)(,以)(及)(货)(币)(基)(础)(总)(额)(的)(实)(际)(增)(长)(。如)(表)(2所)(示)(,本)(轮)(资)(金)(流)(入)(规)(模)(超)(过)(14Q3和)(15Q2时)(期)(水)(平)(,大)(体)(与)(12Q4期)(间)((QE3)期)(间)(相)(当)(。
  2)“总)(结)(余)(规)(模)(占)(货)(币)(基)(础)(和)(外)(汇)(基)(金)(总)(规)(模)(的)(比)(例)(”代)(表)(了)(金)(管)(局)(对)(短)(期)(资)(金)(流)(动)(情)(况)(的)(预)(判)(。结)(合)(金)(管)(局)(官)(员)(言)(论)(和)(历)(史)(数)(据)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(“总)(结)(余)(规)(模)(占)(货)(币)(基)(础)(总)(额)(比)(例)(15%和)(外)(汇)(基)(金)(总)(规)(模)(5%”可)(能)(是)(在)(资)(金)(流)(比)(较)(平)(稳)(状)(态)(下)(的)(参)(考)(目)(标)(水)(平)(。比)(例)(越)(高)(,则)(表)(明)(金)(管)(局)(预)(期)(资)(金)(流)(将)(有)(更)(大)(幅)(度)(的)(波)(动)(,从)(而)(有)(必)(要)(保)(持)(较)(高)(的)(总)(结)(余)(水)(平)(应)(对)(交)(割)(需)(要)(。目)(前)(这)(一)(比)(例)(数)(据)((详)(见)(图)(4)已)(达)(到)(12Q4时)(期)(水)(平)(,表)(明)(金)(管)(局)(对)(未)(来)(资)(金)(流)(波)(动)((主)(要)(是)(强)(流)(入)(可)(能)(转)(为)(强)(流)(出)()仍)(保)(持)(警)(惕)(。
  2、港)(元)(汇)(率)(指)(示)(短)(期)(资)(金)(流)(动)(方)(向)(的)(原)(理)(
  历)(史)(数)(据)((港)(股)(市)(场)(走)(势)(和)(港)(元)(汇)(率)(的)(对)(比)()显)(示)(,港)(元)(汇)(率)(和)(港)(股)(市)(场)(短)(期)(资)(金)(面)(变)(化)(存)(在)(着)(密)(切)(关)(联)(。通)(过)(详)(细)(分)(析)(港)(元)(汇)(率)(和)(香)(港)(金)(融)(体)(系)(内)(各)(项)(短)(期)(资)(金)(流)(动)(的)(关)(联)(原)(理)(,我)(们)(发)(现)(港)(元)(汇)(率)(和)(港)(股)(市)(场)(短)(期)(资)(金)(流)(之)(间)(的)(关)(联)(是)(合)(理)(和)(有)(效)(的)(。
  
  首)(先)(,证)(券)(市)(场)(在)(香)(港)(金)(融)(业)(中)(的)(特)(殊)(地)(位)(决)(定)(了)(股)(票)(市)(场)(的)(资)(金)(流)(动)(在)(全)(港)(短)(期)(国)(际)(资)(金)(流)(动)(中)(占)(据)(重)(要)(比)(例)(。作)(为)(香)(港)(本)(地)(最)(重)(要)(的)(支)(柱)(产)(业)(之)(一)((如)(图)(5、图)(6),金)(融)(业)(所)(引)(发)(的)(资)(金)(流)(动)(在)(香)(港)(资)(金)(流)(动)((特)(别)(是)(短)(期)(资)(金)(流)(动)()中)(无)(疑)(占)(据)(较)(高)(比)(例)(。而)(金)(融)(行)(业)(中)(,短)(期)(资)(金)(流)(动)(变)(化)(最)(为)(明)(显)(的)(又)(当)(属)(证)(券)(市)(场)(。
  
  其)(次)(,港)(元)(汇)(率)((及)(金)(管)(局)(注)(资)(操)(作)()是)(国)(际)(资)(本)(流)(入)(的)(有)(效)(指)(标)(。我)(们)(已)(经)(在)(上)(一)(部)(分)(中)(详)(细)(论)(述)(了)(总)(结)(余)(变)(化)(与)(国)(际)(资)(本)(流)(入)(之)(间)(的)(关)(联)(。而)(港)(元)(汇)(率)(迅)(速)(走)(强)(并)(触)(及)(强)(方)(兑)(换)(保)(证)(是)(金)(管)(局)(向)(总)(结)(余)(注)(资)(的)(重)(要)(前)(提)(。而)(且)(,注)(资)(的)(规)(模)(和)(持)(续)(性)(和)(资)(金)(流)(入)(的)(规)(模)(与)(持)(续)(性)(相)(互)(呼)(应)(。
  最)(后)(,港)(元)(汇)(率)(也)(能)(体)(现)(在)(港)(存)(量)(外)(汇)(的)(兑)(换)(方)(向)(,从)(而)(更)(全)(面)(地)(反)(映)(了)(短)(期)(资)(金)(流)(动)(的)(方)(向)(。基)(于)(外)(汇)(可)(自)(由)(兑)(换)(政)(策)(,港)(股)(市)(场)(资)(金)(面)(还)(受)(到)(在)(港)(存)(量)(外)(汇)(资)(金)(兑)(换)(方)(向)(的)(影)(响)(。我)(们)(可)(以)(用)(银)(行)(体)(系)(即)(期)(外)(汇)(净)(头)(寸)(的)(增)(减)(描)(述)(非)(银)(行)(部)(门)(的)(资)(金)(兑)(换)(方)(向)(。净)(头)(寸)(的)(增)(长)(则)(代)(表)(非)(银)(行)(部)(门)(将)(存)(量)(外)(汇)(兑)(换)(为)(港)(元)(。相)(比)(单)(一)(的)(总)(结)(余)(规)(模)(变)(化)(而)(言)(,“总)(结)(余)(+未)(偿)(付)(外)(汇)(基)(金)(票)(据)(+银)(行)(体)(系)(即)(期)(外)(汇)(净)(头)(寸)(”是)(更)(完)(整)(可)(靠)(的)(短)(期)(资)(金)(流)(量)(指)(标)(。而)(通)(过)(对)(新)(增)(和)(存)(量)(外)(汇)(的)(总)(兑)(换)(需)(求)(的)(体)(现)(,港)(元)(汇)(率)(更)(完)(整)(地)(体)(现)(了)(短)(期)(资)(金)(流)(动)(方)(向)(的)(变)(化)(。
  
  综)(上)(所)(述)(:
  1)总)(结)(余)(增)(长)(和)(外)(汇)(净)(头)(寸)(增)(长)(的)(本)(质)(均)(为)(对)(港)(币)(短)(期)(需)(求)(的)(快)(速)(增)(长)(,并)(多)(由)(对)(港)(股)(市)(场)(的)(投)(资)(需)(求)(导)(致)(。
  2)通)(过)(体)(现)(新)(增)(和)(存)(量)(外)(汇)(的)(总)(兑)(换)(需)(求)(,港)(元)(汇)(率)(更)(完)(整)(地)(体)(现)(了)(短)(期)(资)(金)(流)(动)(方)(向)(的)(变)(化)(。
  3)港)(元)(汇)(率)(是)(资)(金)(流)(的)(有)(效)(方)(向)(指)(标)(而)(非)(流)(量)(指)(标)(。“总)(结)(余)(+未)(偿)(付)(外)(汇)(基)(金)(票)(据)(+银)(行)(体)(系)(即)(期)(外)(汇)(净)(头)(寸)(”是)(一)(个)(可)(供)(参)(考)(的)(流)(量)(指)(标)(。
  3、存)(量)(资)(金)(进)(入)(股)(票)(市)(场)(仍)(需)(催)(化)(剂)(的)(推)(动)(
  基)(于)(前)(文)(所)(建)(立)(的)(短)(期)(资)(金)(流)(动)(分)(析)(框)(架)(,我)(们)(再)(重)(新)(审)(视)(一)(遍)(近)(期)(的)(资)(金)(流)(动)(情)(况)(,并)(评)(估)(其)(对)(港)(股)(市)(场)(的)(影)(响)(:
  首)(先)(,港)(元)(汇)(率)(走)(强)(和)(金)(管)(局)(持)(续)(注)(资)(表)(明)(,资)(金)(自)(8月)(底)(开)(始)(持)(续)(流)(入)(香)(港)(。从)(总)(结)(余)(和)(货)(币)(基)(础)(的)(累)(积)(增)(长)(规)(模)(来)(看)(,本)(轮)(资)(金)(流)(入)(的)(规)(模)(可)(能)(和)(12Q4时)(期)(相)(当)(。
  其)(次)(,由)(于)(银)(行)(体)(系)(外)(汇)(头)(寸)(数)(据)(仅)(更)(新)(至)(7月)(,我)(们)(还)(无)(法)(得)(知)(存)(量)(外)(汇)(在)(资)(金)(流)(入)(期)(间)(的)(变)(化)(情)(况)(。但)(参)(考)(本)(外)(币)(规)(模)((M3,储)(蓄)()变)(化)(情)(况)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(银)(行)(体)(系)(外)(汇)(头)(寸)(的)(增)(长)(可)(能)(比)(较)(有)(限)(。
  换)(言)(之)(,尽)(管)(新)(增)(资)(金)(兑)(换)(港)(币)(的)(需)(求)(较)(强)(,但)(存)(量)(外)(汇)((尤)(其)(是)(美)(元)()兑)(换)(港)(币)(的)(需)(求)(可)(能)(较)(弱)(。根)(据)(历)(史)(经)(验)((08H2),这)(种)(情)(况)(代)(表)(了)(资)(金)(进)(入)(香)(港)(后)(未)(直)(接)(进)(入)(港)(股)(市)(场)(。这)(也)(很)(好)(地)(解)(释)(了)(为)(何)(港)(股)(市)(场)(从)(近)(期)(的)(资)(金)(流)(入)(中)(获)(益)(有)(限)(。
  
  
  参)(考)(08-09年)(的)(市)(场)(走)(势)(,尽)(管)(08下)(半)(年)(开)(始)(,入)(港)(资)(金)(流)(量)(就)(已)(达)(到)(很)(高)(水)(平)(。但)(直)(到)(在)(09年)(2季)(度)(,港)(股)(市)(场)(在)(见)(底)(反)(弹)(以)(后)(,存)(量)(资)(金)(才)(开)(始)(进)(入)(港)(股)(市)(场)((09年)(3月)(,外)(汇)(净)(头)(寸)(大)(幅)(增)(长)()。对)(当)(前)(的)(港)(股)(市)(场)(而)(言)(,市)(场)(整)(体)(承)(压)(的)(大)(环)(境)(并)(没)(有)(改)(善)(,存)(量)(资)(金)(入)(市)(的)(动)(力)(不)(足)(。与)(历)(史)(案)(例)(对)(比)(,应)(留)(意)(“深)(港)(通)(”消)(息)(可)(能)(导)(致)(市)(场)(节)(奏)(改)(变)(,从)(而)(吸)(引)(存)(量)(资)(金)(加)(速)(入)(市)(。
  
  投)(资)(建)(议)(:
  1)资)(金)(不)(问)(出)(处)(,只)(问)(去)(处)(。大)(量)(资)(金)(入)(港)(后)(并)(未)(直)(接)(进)(入)(股)(票)(市)(场)(,风)(险)(偏)(好)(受)(压)(抑)(的)(局)(面)(改)(变)(以)(前)(,资)(金)(仍)(将)(更)(偏)(好)(高)(息)(资)(产)(。在)(目)(前)(的)(市)(场)(结)(构)(下)(,蓝)(筹)(板)(块)(的)(高)(息)(股)(仍)(是)(市)(场)(首)(选)(。但)(考)(虑)(存)(量)(资)(金)(规)(模)(上)(升)(,大)(市)(估)(值)(向)(上)(修)(复)(的)(概)(率)(上)(升)(,配)(置)(上)(可)(进)(一)(步)(增)(加)(部)(分)(基)(本)(面)(触)(底)(的)(低)(估)(值)(股)(。
  2)留)(意)(“关)(键)(变)(化)(”的)(迹)(象)(。应)(留)(意)(“深)(港)(通)(”消)(息)(可)(能)(导)(致)(市)(场)(节)(奏)(改)(变)(,从)(而)(吸)(引)(存)(量)(资)(金)(加)(速)(入)(市)(的)(可)(能)(性)(。但)(在)(美)(元)(加)(息)(大)(环)(境)(下)(,港)(股)(市)(场)(整)(体)(上)(行)(的)(压)(力)(仍)(然)(很)(大)(。因)(此)(,“深)(港)(通)(”行)(情)(可)(能)(仍)(会)(是)(一)(波)(快)(涨)(快)(落)(的)(震)(荡)(行)(情)(。
  来)(源)(:EB海)(外)(策)(略)(
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